Bitcoin

Arthur

World Liberty Financial

President Donald Trump

would

Arthur Hayes says Maelstrom spent the first quarter of 2026 in a "no-trade zone," citing AI-driven job losses and the <a href="https://yellow.com/news/hayes-war-with-iran-will-force-fed-easing-and-lift-bitcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Iran war</a> as reasons to stay sidelined.
<h2 id="hayes-flags-trading-freeze">Hayes Flags Trading Freeze</h2>
In a new essay <a href="https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/no-trade-zone" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">published</a> Apr. 16, the BitMEX co-founder wrote that his family office did almost no trading in the first quarter beyond slowly adding to a long position in Hyperliquid.
Hayes pointed to two forces behind the pause. One is the rise of <a href="https://yellow.com/learn/ai-stock-trading-bots-guide-risks" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">agentic AI</a>, which he argued will gut knowledge-worker jobs and trigger a deflationary bust. The other is the U.S.-Iran war, now nearly seven weeks old.
He said the only question that matters is how commodities will move <a href="https://yellow.com/news/bitcoin-recovery-hormuz-shock-why-it-rebounded-fast" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">through the Strait of Hormuz</a>. On Apr. 12, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would block all ships entering or leaving the waterway, escalating the standoff.
Also Read:<a href="https://yellow.com/news/world-liberty-financial-insider-token-burn" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">World Liberty Financial Demands Insiders Burn 10% Of Their WLFI Or Stay Locked</a>
<h2 id="hayes-on-bitcoin-outlook">Hayes On Bitcoin Outlook</h2>
Hayes laid out three investable scenarios, ranging from a return to the prewar status quo to a full Iranian toll regime paid in yuan, gold or Bitcoin<a href="https://yellow.com/asset/btc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">(BTC)</a>.
He said Bitcoin could spike to $80,000 or $90,000 in a ceasefire case, but will not rally in earnest until the Federal Reserve injects liquidity. In a broader crisis, he expects Bitcoin to drop first, then rally once central banks print.
Read Next:<a href="https://yellow.com/news/binance-chat-crypto-transfers-feature" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Binance Launches Built-In Chat Feature To Merge Messaging With Crypto Transfers</a>

Bitcoin Won't Rally Until Fed Moves, Arthur Hayes Warns

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