Quantum

Bitcoin

Polymarket

A group of Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) wallets holding millions of coins could be vulnerable to future quantum attacks, research published by <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/quantum-computers-need-far-less-power-crack-crypto-says-google" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Google</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/html/2603.28627v1" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Caltech, and quantum startup Oratomic</a> shows.&nbsp;
Key takeaways:
<ul>
 <li>The main risk centers on older addresses with already exposed public keys.</li>
 <li>More than 85,000 BTC from Satoshi-era or decade-old wallets have moved in the past year, suggesting some early holders may be repositioning.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="some-older-btc-wallets-already-preparing">Some older BTC wallets already preparing?</h2>
Google’s paper <a href="https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">estimates</a> that roughly 6.7 million BTC worth over $450 billion is stored in wallets that could become easier to target if quantum computers ever grow powerful enough to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2026-03/019d4325-e1a3-7d38-a0c4-6cde29bbb3ee.png" alt="Is $450B in Bitcoin vulnerable to the quantum threat? Analysts weigh in">
 <figcaption>BTC balance of top 100,000 vulnerable addresses. Source: Google Quantum AI
 </figcaption>
</figure>
That includes a large cluster of legacy wallets holding 50 BTC each, a leftover from Bitcoin’s early mining era when that was the block reward. Many of those so-called “<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/only-10k-bitcoin-quantum-risk-coinshares" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Satosh-era</a>“ coins have remained untouched for years.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2026-03/019d4330-d2ea-78dc-a62e-fbb18541bcfd.jpeg" alt="Is $450B in Bitcoin vulnerable to the quantum threat? Analysts weigh in">
 <figcaption>BTC supply over time by protocol type. Source: Google Quantum AI
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Caltac and Oratomic’s paper claimed that quantum computing can hack a standard blockchain in roughly 10 days.
Meanwhile, analyst Kyledoops <a href="https://x.com/kyledoops/status/2038904196263747696" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> the longer-term risk is concentrated in dormant addresses, and moving them may reduce the quantum risks, a warning some early holders may already be taking seriously.
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-whale-moves-last-btc-galaxy-digital" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Publicly reported transfers</a> show that more than 85,000 BTC from Satoshi-era or decade-old wallets have moved in the past year, though the true total may be higher.
Also, these papers are not fully independent. Some authors hold stakes in Oratomic, and six are employees, meaning its conclusions may also support the company’s commercial interests.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 This is such bullshit lmao. Don't let them fud you out. I read up on quantum computing once and the tech is much further away than they make you believe. Today the highest count is 6K qubits held for 13 seconds. Thats far far away from the 500K required for 9 min - especially… <a href="https://t.co/LouWxSKE1t" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://t.co/LouWxSKE1t</a>— pika2zero (@ruggedpikachu) <a href="https://twitter.com/ruggedpikachu/status/2038906070492463332?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">March 31, 2026</a>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="bitcoin-price-won-t-recover-to-aths-amid-quantum-threat">Bitcoin price won’t recover to ATHs amid quantum threat</h2>
Bitcoin’s price stalled as analyst Nic Carter <a href="https://x.com/nic_carter/status/2038804571791761821" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">amplified</a> the Google report in a viral Tuesday post, with BTC falling 3.5% afterward.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2026-03/019d4398-10af-7ad3-acd9-e2e9b491fa04.png" alt="Is $450B in Bitcoin vulnerable to the quantum threat? Analysts weigh in">
 <figcaption>BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
BTC remains under pressure as multiple analysts highlighted the quantum threat. That included Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investment, who <a href="https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2038867772801950006" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> BTC will “never make a new ATH until Bitcoin Core takes Quantum risk seriously.”
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/peter-brandt-polymarket-traders-new-bitcoin-highs-unlikely-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Peter Brandt, Polymarket traders don’t see new Bitcoin highs this year</a>
Analyst MacnBTC hinted at further BTC price declines in the coming months, <a href="https://x.com/MacnBTC/status/2038891787410956625" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">saying</a>:
<blockquote>
 “Could see us bottoming 2026-2027, and have our last bullrun before this becomes a real threat.”
</blockquote>
Others, like Bitcoin security expert Jameson Lopp, were more skeptical.
“These papers both show advancements in algorithmic efficiency and quantum computing theory, but one should not overlook the assumptions underlying these claims,” he <a href="https://x.com/lopp/status/2038942633897152588?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> in an X post on Tuesday, adding:
<blockquote>
 “Progress is clearly continuing. How long do we have before a cryptographically relevant quantum computer can be built? That's still anyone's guess.”
</blockquote>
Meanwhile, some price models have already projected a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-predictions-40k-final-bottom-for-btc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC bottom inside the $40,000–$50,000 range</a> due to prevailing macro pressures, including elevated <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/oil-prices-hit-3-year-high-above-dollar105-will-bitcoin-crash-again" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">oil prices</a>.

Is $450B in Bitcoin vulnerable to the quantum threat? Analysts weigh in

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