Ethereum

Long

2026

USDC

<p>Long considered the unshakable runner-up to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s position is now threatened by an unexpected adversary: Tether. On Polymarket, bets on an “ETH flipping” in 2026 have jumped from 17% to over 59% in a few weeks. A trend that raises questions.</p><div class="in-brief"><div class="in-brief--container"><span class="in-brief--border-top"></span><span class="in-brief--border-bottom"></span><h2 class="in-brief--title" id="in-brief">In brief</h2><ul><li>The chances that Ethereum will lose its second place in 2026 have risen from 17% to over 59% on Polymarket.</li><li>Over five years, ETH’s market capitalization increased by only 11.75%, compared to 622.5% for Tether’s USDT.</li><li>Ethereum spot ETFs have lost about 65% of their assets under management since October 2024.</li><li>The stablecoin market now exceeds 310 billion dollars, of which 58% are held by Tether.</li></ul></div></div><h2 id="h-tether-is-nibbling-away-at-ethereum-s-turf-not-bitcoin-s">Tether is nibbling away at Ethereum’s turf, not Bitcoin’s</h2><p>The scenario unfolding in 2026 is as surprising as it is instructive. It is not Bitcoin that threatens Ethereum’s second place, but Tether. According to Polymarket data, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/features/etheruem-flippening-odds-rise-wont-involve-bitcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">over 59% of bettors anticipate this shift</a>. At the beginning of the year, this probability did not exceed 17%.</p><div class="my-4"><div class="ads "></div></div><figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="542" src="https://www.cointribune.com/app/uploads/2026/03/image-38-1024x542.png" alt="Evolution of bets on Ethereum's demotion in 2026. Source: Polymarket" class="wp-image-936886"><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><em>Evolution of bets on Ethereum’s demotion in 2026. Source: Polymarket</em></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past five years, ETH’s market capitalization has increased by only 11.75%, reaching around 240 billion dollars. Meanwhile, USDT experienced a growth of 622.5%, with a capitalization now close to 184 billion dollars. XRP and USDC also outperformed Ethereum during this period.</p><figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="619" src="https://www.cointribune.com/app/uploads/2026/03/image-39-1024x619.png" alt="Comparison of market capitalizations of ETH, USDT, XRP, and USDC over five years. Source: TradingView" class="wp-image-936890"><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><em>Comparison of market capitalizations of ETH, USDT, XRP, and USDC over five years. Source: TradingView</em></figcaption></figure><p>The logic is simple: Ethereum needs risk appetite to see its price rise. Tether, on the other hand, thrives exactly in the opposite context, when investors seek safety.&nbsp;</p><p>During periods of macroeconomic turmoil, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical tensions, fading hopes of Fed rate cuts, capital flees volatility and seeks refuge in stablecoins.</p><p>The total stablecoin market has now exceeded 310 billion dollars, compared to only 5 billion in 2020. Tether captures 58% of this. This liquidity on hold represents capital positioned on the sidelines, ready to re-enter when conditions improve. Meanwhile, they mechanically inflate Tether’s capitalization.</p><p>Institutional disinterest further worsens the picture for Ethereum. The <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/ethereum-etfs-one-year-bullish-streak/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETH spot ETFs</a> in the United States have seen their assets under management shrink by about 65%, from 31.86 billion dollars in October 2024 to 11.76 billion dollars in March 2026. A sharp decline contrasting with the dynamism of Bitcoin ETFs.</p><div class="affiliate-button"><a class="affiliate-button__link" href="https://bitpanda.pxf.io/c/2801338/1632019/15871" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Your 1st cryptos with Bitpanda</a><a class="affiliate-button__disclaimer" href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/sponsored-content/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">This link uses an affiliate program.</a></div><h2 id="h-an-eth-under-technical-and-fundamental-pressure">An ETH under technical and fundamental pressure</h2><p>From a technical analysis perspective, the picture is no more reassuring. The <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-markets/ethereum-eth-en/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETH price</a> currently appears to be forming a “bear flag” pattern on the tri-daily chart.</p><p>If the break below the lower trend line is confirmed, a bearish target around 1,250 dollars is conceivable by June 2026. In other words, a new significant down leg cannot be ruled out.</p><figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="619" src="https://www.cointribune.com/app/uploads/2026/03/image-40-1024x619.png" alt="ETH/USD price evolution over three days. Source: TradingView" class="wp-image-936894"><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><em>ETH/USD price evolution over three days. Source: TradingView</em></figcaption></figure><p>Additionally, there is a worrying structural fragility: the leverage ratio on Ethereum has recently reached a record high, indicating speculation weighs as heavily as available reserves on exchanges. In this context, the slightest bad news can trigger liquidation cascades.</p><div class="my-4"><div class="ads "></div></div><p>Yet, Ethereum is not without assets. <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/ethereum-attracts-major-investors-despite-an-uncertain-market/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Whales have accumulated nearly 466,500 ETH</a> during the last pullback, and activity on Ethereum L1 shows signs of recovery, driven notably by stablecoins and tokenized assets. The network is also preparing its post-quantum resistance for 2029, a fundamental project for the long term.</p><p>In short, the battle for second place is not between ETH and BTC, but between two radically different investment philosophies. As long as risk aversion dominates the markets, <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/tag/tether-usdt/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Tether</a> will continue to widen the gap. For Ethereum, the real turnaround will depend less on its technological fundamentals than on the return of a global appetite for risky assets.</p>

Ethereum could lose its second place in the crypto market in 2026

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