Jerome Powell

Bitcoin

Quantum

Kevin

would

The yearly Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) price candle is set to close in the red, ending 2025 lower than at the start of the year, unless BTC can rise by 6.24% above the yearly open of about $93,374.&nbsp;
“3 days for Bitcoin to recover and close up on the year. If not, this will be the first post-halving year we close in the red. 6.24% required to make this a green candle,” Puckrin <a href="https://x.com/nicrypto/status/2005289635384328298" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a>.&nbsp;
Bitcoin hit an <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-on-exchanges-falls-to-six-year-low-as-btc-returns-to-124k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">all-time high above $125,000</a> in October, days before a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump100-tariffs-china-bitcoin-plummets-110k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">historic market crash</a> put a dent in Bitcoin’s rally and dropped crypto prices across the board.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin Price" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019b66e8-b27e-7cda-b7ce-8d9f5be5bb07.jpeg" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin’s 2025 candle is currently in the red, with only three days left in the year. Source: <a href="https://x.com/nicrypto/status/2005289635384328298" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Nic Puckrin</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The price of BTC has declined by about 30% since the all-time high and formed a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/analyst-warns-more-leverage-liquidations-could-push-btc-below-80k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">local bottom around $80,000</a> in November, prompting analysts to debate if Bitcoin’s bull rally is over and a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dip-365-moving-average-bull-bear-debate" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">new bear market has started</a>.
Market analysts are at odds over whether a recovery will materialize or if the decline will extend into 2026, often focusing on macroeconomic factors and liquidity conditions that drive Bitcoin’s price.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-onchain-flows-global-macro-here-s-what-changed-in-2025" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin price, onchain flows and global macro: Here’s what changed in 2025</a>
<h2 id="all-eyes-are-on-the-us-federal-reserve-and-whether-rate-cuts-will-continue">All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve and whether rate cuts will continue</h2>
Bitcoin has been trading well below its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, since November, breaking the structural uptrend that began in 2023.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin Price" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019b66eb-3e79-7241-9434-e9f1ba2d75f5.png" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin’s price has broken below the 365-day moving average, where it has remained since November. Source: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/g7xkPkTa/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSD" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">TradingView</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Lower interest rates are <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/explained/impact-of-fed-interest-rates-on-crypto-holders" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">positive price catalysts for risk-on assets</a>, including cryptocurrencies, which tend to rally with fresh liquidity injections.
The Federal Reserve issued three 25 basis point (BPS) interest rate cuts in 2025; however, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/fed-slashes-interest-rates-mixed-guidance" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">issued mixed forward guidance</a> at the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting.
“There is no risk-free path for policy,” Powell said, casting doubt about another interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in January.
Only 18.8% of investors expect an interest rate cut in January, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">tool</a>.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/quantum-attacking-bitcoin-would-be-a-waste-of-time-kevin-oleary/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Quantum attacking Bitcoin would be a waste of time: Kevin O’Leary</a>

Bitcoin needs a 6.24% rally to close 2025 in the green: Analyst

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