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<p>Bitcoin is about to close 2025 almost exactly where it started.</p><p>After riding a strong bullish wave for most of the year, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,080 on October 6. ETF inflows were strong, regulatory progress improved sentiment, and on-chain activity picked up. But the rally didn’t last.</p><p>A mix of macro disappointments, leverage wipeouts, and heavy whale selling cooled the market, pushing BTC back into the <a href="https://markets.coinpedia.org/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$80,000-$90,000 range</a> by December.</p><p>Galaxy Digital says that while 2025 may end quietly, it helps lay the groundwork for what comes next.</p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-galaxy-digital-2026-is-hard-to-call">Galaxy Digital: 2026 Is Hard to Call</h2><p>In its <a href="https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/predictions-2026-crypto-bitcoin-defi" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">annual report</a>, Galaxy Digital took a cautious stance on <a href="https://coinpedia.org/price-prediction/bitcoin-price-prediction/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.</a> While the firm expects Bitcoin to reach <strong>$250,000 by the end of 2027</strong>, it admits that 2026 is far less predictable.</p><blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p><em>“2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible,” </em>said Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital.</p></blockquote><p>According to Galaxy, Bitcoin still hasn’t fully regained bullish momentum. Until BTC can hold above the <strong>$100,000-$105,000</strong> range, downside risk remains on the table.</p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="options-markets-show-extreme-price-ranges">Options Markets Show Extreme Price Ranges</h2><p>That uncertainty is clearly showing up in derivatives markets. Options traders are pricing nearly equal odds of Bitcoin trading at $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026. By the end of 2026, expectations stretch even wider from $50,000 to $250,000.</p><blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p><em>“These wide ranges reflect uncertainty about the near term,”</em> Thorn said, pointing to broader risks like monetary policy shifts, AI capital spending, and the U.S. midterm elections.</p></blockquote><h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="2025-predictions-fell-short">2025 Predictions Fell Short</h2><p>Galaxy also reviewed its 2025 Bitcoin calls and several missed the mark.</p><p>Bitcoin did not cross $150,000 or test $185,000 as expected. While BTC briefly became one of the top risk-adjusted performers earlier in the year, it’s now on track to finish 2025 with a negative Sharpe ratio. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also fell short of the $250 billion AUM target, reaching about $141 billion instead.</p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="a-boring-year-may-still-be-bullish">A “Boring” Year May Still Be Bullish</h2><p>Despite the setbacks, Galaxy believes Bitcoin is maturing into a more traditional macro asset. Volatility has declined, and downside protection now costs more than upside bets – a shift usually seen in established markets like gold.</p><blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p>“2026 could be a boring year for Bitcoin, and whether it finishes at $70k or $150k, our bullish outlook… is only growing stronger,” Thorn said.</p></blockquote><p>For Bitcoin, stability may be the real signal of progress.</p><h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-faqs">FAQs</h2><div class="schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block"><div class="schema-faq-section" id="faq-question-1766843200892"><strong class="schema-faq-question"><strong>Why is Bitcoin’s 2025 performance considered “boring” despite hitting record highs?</strong></strong><p class="schema-faq-answer">Bitcoin reached an all-time high but ended the year near its starting price, showing reduced volatility and signaling maturation as a macro asset rather than pure speculation.</p></div><div class="schema-faq-section" id="faq-question-1766843219571"><strong class="schema-faq-question"><strong>What do options markets reveal about Bitcoin’s near-term outlook?</strong></strong><p class="schema-faq-answer">Traders price wide ranges for 2026, from $50,000 to $250,000, reflecting uncertainty from macro factors like monetary policy, AI spending, and U.S. elections.</p></div><div class="schema-faq-section" id="faq-question-1766843238315"><strong class="schema-faq-question"><strong>Why could a “boring” year still be positive for Bitcoin?</strong></strong><p class="schema-faq-answer">Lower volatility and higher cost of downside protection suggest Bitcoin is becoming a more stable, institutional-friendly asset, laying groundwork for long-term growth.</p></div></div>

Galaxy Digital Admits Bitcoin 2026 Is ‘Too Chaotic’ as Price Targets Split Widely

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