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Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) is flashing early signs of a deeper correction, as the latest recovery pauses at $93,000. New analysis shows Bitcoin’s “market structure” increasingly resembles the first quarter of 2022, which marked the beginning of the bear market.
Key takeaways:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin's onchain structure mirrors early 2022, risking a deep bear market if key levels are lost.&nbsp;</li>
 <li>Bitcoin’s bear flag targets a $68,100 BTC price.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="br-bitcoin-onchain-data-hints-at-early-bear-market"> Bitcoin onchain data hints at early bear market</h2>
Bitcoin has dropped toward and found support near its True Market Mean, currently at $81,500, according to Onchain data provider Glassnode.
The True Market Mean, or the Active-Investor Price, represents the cost basis of all non-dormant coins, excluding miners.&nbsp;
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“This level often marks the dividing line between a mild bearish phase and a deep bear market,” Glassnode <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-48-2025/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> in its latest Week On-chain report, adding;
<blockquote>
 “Although price has recently stabilized above this threshold, the broader market structure is increasingly echoing the dynamics of Q1 2022.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019ae9b0-4b22-7fbb-8fab-d33b20c41af2" title="" alt="Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin: True Market Mean. Source: Glassnode
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The chart above shows that the BTC/USD pair traded above this level from Jan. 22 to May 5, 2022. When BTC dropped below this level on May 6, the price lost a further 61%, bottoming at $15,500 in November of that year.
The resemblance is corroborated by a Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model, which tracks the entry price of the largest coin clusters. Since mid-November, Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, now trading near $96,100, placing more than 25% of supply underwater.
This has created a highly “fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” Glassnode wrote, adding:&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “The current structure remains highly sensitive to macro shocks until the market can reclaim the 0.85 quantile (~$106.2K) as support.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019ae9b0-5817-72d9-9fd2-59a17b64011a" title="" alt="Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin: Supply quantiles cost basis. Source: Glassnode
 </figcaption>
</figure>
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/analytics/query/67dada27f3ae1b2f63a97872?v=67db0d08a2a7203afd386b89" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">offers</a> a more granular view after falling sharply since August and dropping below 40 in October. The metric has remained flat throughout November despite short-term price volatility.&nbsp;
The latest reading falls within the 0-20 range, deep within bearish conditions, similar to the levels observed in January 2022, as shown in the chart below.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019ae9b2-b002-7d2c-8c01-4a659cc77a6f" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin: Bull Score Index. Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-2022-bear-market-correlation-98-percent-etfs-add-220m" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, Bitcoin’s price action is showing other similarities with the 2022 bear market.
<h2 id="bitcoin-s-bear-flag-targets-69-000">Bitcoin’s bear flag targets $69,000</h2>
Bitcoin’s latest recovery attempt was rejected by <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">stiff resistance around $93,000</a>, data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA.." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">TradingView</a> shows.&nbsp;
This level corresponds to the yearly open and the upper boundary of a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/how-to-trade-bull-and-bear-flag-patterns#:~:text=A%20bear%20flag%20pattern%20is,is%20the%20bear%20flag%20itself." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bear flag</a>, as shown on the two-day chart below.&nbsp;
A break and close below the flag’s lower boundary at $91,000 will validate the bear flag, opening the door for a fresh downtrend toward the measured target of the pattern at $68,150, or the previous all-time highs of 2021. Such a move would bring the total losses to 27%.
<figure>
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019ae9b0-755f-77d2-84de-3340c0883541" title="" alt="Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD two-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/XbgJEoN0/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">TradingView</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Momentum indicators, including the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">relative strength index</a>, or RSI, remain sluggish at 40, suggesting that market conditions still favor the downside.
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-strongest-trading-day-since-may-cues-possible-rally-to-dollar107k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, the bearish pattern will be invalidated if the bulls push the price above $96,000, supported by a positive Coinbase Premium.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?

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