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<p>Bitcoin has fallen more than 22 % in one month, casting doubt on its momentum. Yet, behind this pullback, several signals converge towards a possible return to the symbolic threshold of $112,000. While markets are restless, institutional and retail investors watch four key factors likely to revive the bullish trend. In a context of macroeconomic uncertainty and tension in derivative markets, the scenario of a rebound can no longer be ruled out.</p>
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  <h2 class="in-brief--title" id="in-brief">In Brief</h2>
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   <li>Bitcoin has lost over 22 % in 30 days, but a rebound towards $112,000 remains possible according to several signals.</li>
   <li>Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, Fed rates and U.S. fiscal policy could create a favorable environment.</li>
   <li>The bond market, via the TIPS ETF, shows expectations of rising inflation, often correlated with a BTC price increase.</li>
   <li>Bitcoin’s development by 2026 will depend on a fragile balance between macroeconomic signals and confidence in the crypto ecosystem.</li>
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<h2 id="the-four-levers-of-a-potential-rebound">The four levers of a potential rebound</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/strong-dollar-meets-strong-bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the flagship asset breaks above $86,000 despite a strong dollar</a>, Bitcoin’s return beyond $112,000 could primarily rely on global inflationary dynamics and possible shifts in U.S. monetary policy.</p>
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<p>A key indicator cited in the analysis is the iShares TIPS ETF, which tracks U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds. This asset has resumed its upward trajectory after testing a technical support at 110.50.</p>
<p>Four factors could give Bitcoin fresh momentum. <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-path-back-to-112k-and-higher-depends-on-four-key-factors" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">These levers</a> are macroeconomic, technical, and structural alike :</p>
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 <li>Interest rates and monetary policy : the Federal Reserve maintaining benchmark rates above 3.5 % until 2026, anticipated by markets at 78 %, contributes to a low real interest rate environment that could favor adoption of alternative assets like Bitcoin ;</li>
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 <li>Inflation and the bond market : the iShares TIPS Bond ETF, reflecting inflation expectations, shows a recovery. This could signal a favorable environment for the rise of risky assets ;</li>
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 <li>A convergence with traditional markets : potential inclusion of Bitcoin-exposed companies in broader stock indices, especially via MSCI adjustments, could open the way to increased institutional investments;</li>
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 <li>Asymmetry in derivative markets : the options market shows strong imbalance favoring put options, which Julius Baer calls an <em>“excess of bearish hedging”</em>. Correcting this asymmetry could trigger a bullish move, especially approaching the December expiry.</li>
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<p>These signals, though still uncertain, reveal a favorable dynamic if the four factors converge.</p>
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<h2 id="h-a-bullish-scenario-slowed-by-market-caution">A bullish scenario slowed by market caution</h2>
<p>Beyond macroeconomic considerations, internal developments within the Bitcoin ecosystem could also play a decisive role in price dynamics.</p>
<p>One major uncertainty concerns the position of MSCI, one of the most followed indices by global passive funds. In October, MSCI launched a consultation among investors on the opportunity to exclude from its indices some companies heavily exposed to Bitcoin, notably Strategy (MSTR).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/fdic-moves-to-relax-key-bank-capital-rule-tied-to-treasuries" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">This decision</a>, expected on January 15, 2026, could impact nearly $9 billion of passive exposure. Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MSTR, reacted by stating: <em>“Strategy is not a fund, nor a trust, nor a holding company. We are a publicly listed company with $500 million in software activity and a unique cash strategy”</em>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the derivatives market signals a clear lack of trader confidence. Thus, put options on BTC currently trade with a 10 % premium compared to equivalent call options.</p>
<p>This imbalance is interpreted as persistent pressure on market sentiment. A easing of this imbalance towards a premium of 5 % or less would be necessary to consider a return of optimism. Added to this is the imminent expiration of $22.6 billion of BTC options scheduled for December 26, an event that could provoke significant volatility or serve as a catalyst for a new accumulation phase.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-markets/bitcoin-btc-en/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin price</a> oscillates between macroeconomic uncertainty and hopes for a technical recovery. While signals remain mixed, the coming weeks will be decisive in assessing the solidity of a potential rebound towards $112,000. Caution remains warranted across the market.</p>

4 Catalysts That Could Boost Bitcoin

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