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A significant crash for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market doesn’t look likely at this stage, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.
“We haven’t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation,” Alden <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN_T696aqKA" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> during a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast.
“The cycle could go on for longer than people can expect, because it’s not driven by the halving, it’s driven by broader macro and interest in the asset itself,” Alden said, shutting down the idea that the four-year cycle is still intact.
The sentiment mirrors comments from other crypto industry executives, such as <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitwise chief investment officer</a> Matt Hougan, who recently dismissed the four-year-cycle theory and said the market is likely in “for a good few years.”
<h2 id="alden-says-market-outcomes-usually-not-as-good-or-bad-as-people-expect">Alden says market outcomes usually not as good or bad as people expect</h2>
However, not everyone agrees with Alden that a major capitulation is off the table.&nbsp; Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-4-year-cycle-not-dead-70-drawdown" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">recently told Cointelegraph</a> that he expects a Bitcoin (<a href="/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer">BTC</a>) retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years.
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 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019aae81-a445-7b76-a5fe-ba1df0776792" title="">
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 Lyn Alden spoke to Danny Knowles on the What Bitcoin Did podcast. Source: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN_T696aqKA" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">What Bitcoin Did</a>
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Alden said market outcomes rarely match the extremes investors imagine. “It’s usually not as good as people expect and it’s usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out,” she said.
It comes as Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, dropping to as low as $80,700 on Thursday before recovering slightly to $85,710 at the time of publication, <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">according</a> to CoinMarketCap.&nbsp;
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019aae7f-0a66-7a46-ae4e-410b9c4b947d" title="">
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 Bitcoin is down 22.46% over the past 30 days. Source: <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">CoinMarketCap</a>
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Market sentiment has also fallen, as many traders were expecting year-end strength and even new highs, with some, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, calling for a move toward $250,000.
<h2 id="alden-says-no-one-is-owed-a-bull-market">Alden says, “No one is owed a bull market”</h2>
Bitcoin’s recent price plunge has traders obsessing over when the next uptrend will begin, but Alden said investors need to stop treating bull cycles like they’re guaranteed.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-og-selling-weak-hand-deep-selloff-schiff" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin OG's selling to 'weak' hands will deepen selloffs: Peter Schiff</a>
“People kind of get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market,” Alden said. “No one is owed a bull market,” she said.
Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level in 2026 and to either set new all-time highs that year or, if not, in 2027.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-price-prediction-us-government-whatsapp-hodlers-digest/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin $200K soon or 2029? Scott Bessent hangs at Bitcoin bar: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 16 – 22</a>

No major capitulation in sight for Bitcoin, says Lyn Alden

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