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Rekt

<p>Bitcoin is once again testing a crucial macro resistance zone, and according to market analyst Rekt Capital, the current structure is showing striking similarities to previous cycle tops. His latest monthly <strong><a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1992353527180439782" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">chart</a></strong> highlights a repeating pattern of rallies, rejections, and weakening support, warning that the next move could determine whether BTC holds its long-term trajectory or enters a deeper corrective phase.</p>
<h2 id="historical-rallies-show-a-consistent-pattern">Historical Rallies Show a Consistent Pattern</h2>
<p>In past macro cycles, Bitcoin has often produced a strong rally immediately after breaking above the Macro Descending Triangle base.</p>
<ul>
 <li>In 2021, this breakout produced an almost +100% overextension before the trend failed.</li>
 <li>Even the smallest rebound before the breakdown reached ~39%, reflecting fading support before the complete collapse.</li>
</ul>
<p>Rekt Capital notes that these “smallest rallies” tend to precede major breakdowns, acting as the market’s final relief bounce before supply overwhelms demand.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" src="https://www.ethnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/G6ZCK9_WwAQCfPy.jpeg" alt="" width="1200" height="869"></p>
<h2 id="this-cycle-s-structure-mirrors-earlier-peaks">This Cycle’s Structure Mirrors Earlier Peaks</h2>
<p>In the current cycle, Bitcoin’s strongest rally beyond the same macro base has been +52%, much smaller than the previous cycle’s +100% but aligned with the pattern of diminishing returns.</p>
<p>Based on this structure, if history rhymes, a new relief rebound from current prices would likely represent the smallest rally of the cycle, roughly half of the largest move, which Rekt Capital estimates around ~20%.</p>
<p>A +20% move from recent lows places Bitcoin directly beneath the Macro Downtrend line (black trendline), the same level that previously triggered major rejections in earlier cycles.</p>
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<h2 id="why-the-macro-downtrend-matters-now">Why the Macro Downtrend Matters Now</h2>
<p>The chart shows Bitcoin pulling back sharply from its recent peak near $120,000 and approaching a long-term horizontal support zone. If BTC attempts a relief rally from these levels, the Macro Downtrend overhead remains the key barrier.</p>
<p>A rejection at this downtrend would echo the 2021 breakdown structure and could signal a broader trend reversal.</p>
<p>Conversely, a clean breakout above the Macro Downtrend would invalidate the bearish fractal and open the door for a retest of six-figure prices.</p>
<h2 id="what-traders-should-watch">What Traders Should Watch</h2>
<p>Rekt Capital’s chart highlights three essential levels:</p>
<ol>
 <li>Macro Downtrend Resistance – The cycle-defining rejection point.</li>
 <li>Horizontal Support Zone – The line Bitcoin has held multiple times before major expansions.</li>
 <li>Projected Relief Rally Target (~20%) – The area where the next rejection historically occurs.</li>
</ol>
<p>Bitcoin’s reaction at these levels will determine whether this is a temporary correction within a bull market, or the start of a larger macro reversal.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.ethnews.com/bitcoin-faces-macro-downtrend-retest-as-historical-pattern-reappears/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Faces Macro Downtrend Retest as Historical Pattern Reappears</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.ethnews.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETHNews</a>.</p>

Bitcoin Faces Macro Downtrend Retest as Historical Pattern Reappears

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