bullish

Galaxy

Bitcoin

Key takeaways:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson expects two to six months for recovery, though forecasts remain divided.</li>
 <li>One model cites historical price action breakout phases from 2017, 2021 and 2024.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin’s (<a href="/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer">BTC</a>) recent correction has tempered bullish enthusiasm, with analysts now projecting a slower path toward new highs.
Since reaching an all-time high of $126,200 on Oct. 6, Bitcoin (<a href="/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer">BTC</a>) has dropped roughly 20%, currently hovering under the $100,000 mark. According to network economist Timothy Peterson, this pullback aligns with Bitcoin’s historical recovery patterns. Peterson <a href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1985831065978581443" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">explained</a>,
<blockquote>
 “This is the third 20% drawdown from an all-time high since 2024. The average recovery to a new ATH from these levels is 2–6 months.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Dollar, Bitcoin Price, Investments, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019a5eeb-c6d6-7519-bf83-3c57533bf930" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 20% Bitcoin drawdown since 2024. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The economist <a href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1986113195333836877" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">wrote</a> that AI-created simulations suggest less than a 20% probability of Bitcoin hitting $140,000 by year-end, a 50% chance of finishing above $108,000, and a 30% chance of ending 2025 in the red.
Similarly, Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn has cut the company’s year-end BTC target to $120,000 from $185,000, citing market maturation. Thorn <a href="https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/1986063118079021068" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">noted</a> that Bitcoin is entering a phase where institutional participation, passive inflows and reduced volatility define price behavior.&nbsp;
Thorn added that maintaining the $100,000 support could keep the three-year bull trend structurally intact, but that “future gains may unfold at a slower, steadier pace as Bitcoin transitions into a maturity era.”
Meanwhile, crypto trader Titan of Crypto offered a more mixed outlook, <a href="https://x.com/Washigorira/status/1986786708457927167" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">forecasting</a> a potential new all-time high near $130,000 by year-end, but warned that Bitcoin could plunge below $70,000 by the first quarter of 2026, based on Wyckoff distribution analysis.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Dollar, Bitcoin Price, Investments, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019a5eed-9d52-79e2-88fc-47bc217fe5a4" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Titan of Crypto’s Wyckoff distribution analysis. Source: X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-crisscrosses-100k-as-btc-price-bottoming-phase-begins" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">Related:&nbsp;Bitcoin crisscrosses $100K as BTC price ‘bottoming phase’ begins</a>
<h2 id="market-reset-for-bitcoin-s-next-phase-remains-active">Market reset for Bitcoin’s next phase remains active</h2>
Despite widespread caution, Bitcoin commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera <a href="https://x.com/shanaka86/status/1986193539378913547" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">presented</a> a contrasting view, arguing that the recent correction may actually prime BTC for a parabolic phase.
Perera said 29.2% of Bitcoin’s supply is now underwater, a level historically preceding major rallies. Perera pointed out that similar metrics appeared before the 2017, 2021 and 2024 bull runs, each leading to 150% to 400% gain within six months.
According to Perera, leverage across derivatives markets has been flushed out, while long-term holders now control roughly 70% of supply. Institutional accumulation through ETFs and rising stablecoin reserves suggests “liquidity is recharging beneath the surface.”
The analyst concluded that, unless triggered by a major macro or geopolitical shock, Bitcoin’s current structure mirrors previous pre-breakout conditions, with the next 180 days potentially marking the start of another explosive cycle.
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-decline-forecast-glassnode-data-no-panic" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">Related:&nbsp;Bitcoin at $100K is ‘speed bump’ to $56K, but data signals no signs of panic</a>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

New Bitcoin highs could take 2 to 6 months but data says it’s worth the wait: Analysis

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