Ethereum

SoSoValue

Nansen

Key takeaways:
<ul>
 <li>Ether consolidated around $4,000 as the lack of futures demand and weak ETF flows suggest the absence of bullishness.&nbsp;</li>
 <li>Declining Ethereum network fees and activity suggest lower onchain demand.</li>
 <li>Analysts warn of a drop to $3,500 if the support at $4,000 is not reclaimed shortly.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Ether (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETH</a>) has oscillated around $4,000 for the past two weeks, a consolidation period following its flash crash below $3,500 on Oct. 11.
Ether traders are now assessing the likelihood of further bullish momentum after the US Federal Reserve <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tumbles-to-dollar109-2k-after-fed-0-25percent-rate-cut-and-decision-to-end-qt" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">confirmed a 0.25% interest rate cut</a> and the end of quantitative tightening.&nbsp;
<figure>
 <img alt="Why can’t Ethereum hold $4K? ETH recovery in doubt as data leans bearish" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a34e4-47e8-7630-8590-f17db2e15df7" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 ETH/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/<a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/UXlLcOKt/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">TradingView</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="ether-price-lacks-sustained-bullish-sentiment">Ether price lacks sustained bullish sentiment&nbsp;</h2>
Ether futures are currently trading at a 5% premium relative to standard ETH spot markets, reflecting low demand from buyers using leverage.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-long-term-holders-ico-wallets-active" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Early Ethereum whales stirring? Data shows old Ether is moving</a>
In neutral market conditions, futures premiums typically range from 5% to 10% to account for the longer settlement period. More concerningly, even the recent recovery to $4,250 did not restore sustained bullish sentiment among traders.
<figure>
 <img alt="Why can’t Ethereum hold $4K? ETH recovery in doubt as data leans bearish" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a34e4-f425-7b12-b71e-4fc0f576b3a8" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Ether annualized futures, three-month rolling basis. Source: Glassnode
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The bearish trend in Ether futures coincided with outflows from US-based Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have dominated since mid-October.&nbsp;
The $380 million in ETF net inflows on Monday and Tuesday did little to generate any bullish momentum, leaving traders questioning whether a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-s-bull-flag-targets-10k-as-etf-demand-returns" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$10,000 ETH price target</a> remains realistic for this cycle.
<figure>
 <img alt="Why can’t Ethereum hold $4K? ETH recovery in doubt as data leans bearish" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a34e5-ae4f-7b20-a5be-33751bdab088" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 US spot Ethereum ETF daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Ether’s inability to stay above $4,000 can also be attributed to the decline in <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-revenue-drops-44-percent-august-all-time-high" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ethereum network fees</a>, although this issue has affected the entire cryptocurrency market.
<figure>
 <img alt="Why can’t Ethereum hold $4K? ETH recovery in doubt as data leans bearish" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a34e6-3335-739f-a86d-87a2d3311cb2" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Blockchains ranked by seven-day fees, USD. Source: Nansen
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Ethereum chain fees totaled $5 million over the past seven days, representing a 16% decrease from the previous week. By comparison, fees on BNB Chain dropped 30%, and Tron experienced a 16% decline. The number of active addresses on Ethereum’s base layer dropped by 4% over the same period, while Tron saw an over 100% increase.&nbsp;
<h2 id="a-classic-bear-trap-or-is-eth-price-going-lower">A “classic bear trap” or is ETH price going lower?</h2>
Data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA.." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">TradingView</a> show that the Ether price is printing a third consecutive red candlestick on the daily chart.&nbsp;
Several attempts at recovery have been <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-price-fails-above-4k-traders-grow-frustrated-shakeouts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">rejected at the $4,000 resistance level</a>, prompting traders to question whether Ether’s upside is over or if the altcoin is undergoing a technical correction.&nbsp;
“$ETH has lost its $4,000 support level again,” <a href="https://x.com/TedPillows/status/1983812477646467081" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> analyst Ted Pillows in an X post on Thursday.&nbsp;
Pillows pointed out that despite the “Fed’s 0.25% rate cut, QT ending in a month, and US-China trade talks” all happening within the past 24 hours, Ethereum remains down.
An accompanying chart shows that the next line of defense for ETH was $3,800, and losing it would trigger another sell-off, first toward the $3,500-$3,700 demand zone and later to the $3,354 low reached on Aug. 3.&nbsp;
On the upside, reclaiming $4,000 would bolster the bulls to focus on the barriers at $4,200 and $4,500, before returning to <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/20k-eth-price-in-play-ethereum-belief-zone" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">all-time highs above $5,000</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Ted Pillows wrote:
<blockquote>
 “Either this is a classic bear trap, or the crypto market is going way lower.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Why can’t Ethereum hold $4K? ETH recovery in doubt as data leans bearish" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a34e8-ea27-7c04-8fdb-f138979c98ad" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Ted Pillows
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Fellow analyst FibonacciTrading <a href="https://x.com/Fibonacci_TA/status/1983831462013968526" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> a “dip toward $3,300 would still count as a healthy pullback within the uptrend, held by the EMA cloud,” as shown in the weekly chart below.
<blockquote>
 “It will be a real show of strength if the bulls can defend support here and set up for the next attack on resistance.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Why can’t Ethereum hold $4K? ETH recovery in doubt as data leans bearish" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a34e9-bcde-73a4-af53-6c5fbdeef1ad" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: FibonacciTrading
 </figcaption>
</figure>
For pseudonymous analyst Cactus, <a href="https://x.com/thecryptocactus/status/1983825284743811100" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Ether’s upside remains on track</a> with a “strong Q4 still on the cards” as long as bulls hold the $3,800-$4,200 support region.&nbsp;
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-predictions-10-29-btc-eth-bnb-xrp-sol-doge-ada-hype-link-bch" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, bulls must push the price above the 50-day simple moving average at $4,200 to signal strength and confirm the start of the next leg of the upward move.&nbsp;
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Why can’t Ethereum hold $4K? ETH recovery in doubt as data leans bearish

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