Bitcoin

Rekt

Key points:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin is on track for one of its worst October performances since 2013.</li>
 <li>Previous bull market years offered a minimum of 40% gains.</li>
 <li>The Federal Reserve may offer a last-minute reprieve at next week’s meeting.</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) “Uptober” hangs in the balance as price threatens to print the first “red” October since 2018.
Data from monitoring resource <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/today" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">CoinGlass</a> shows that at current prices, BTC/USD is 2.3% below its monthly starting level.
<h2 id="bearish-october-hinges-on-4-btc-price-loss">Bearish October hinges on 4% BTC price loss</h2>
October 2025 has disappointed Bitcoin bulls so far, as an early surge to new all-time highs quickly turned into a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-wobbles-110k-trader-says-20b-liquidation-rout-not-bottom" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">liquidation nightmare</a>.
Now acting in a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-closes-107k-cme-gap-focus-shifts-friday-key-cpi-print" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">narrow range</a> between around $107,000 and $111,500, the BTC price has much ground to make up by the monthly candle close.
CoinGlass demonstrates just how far behind the market now is: The average upside for October since 2013 has been 20%, which would put Bitcoin at over $130,000.
<figure>
 <img alt="Worst Uptober ever? Bitcoin price risks first ‘red’ October in years" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a1539-9c10-729f-a868-e36f476f95b4" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass 
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Alternatively, BTC/USD only needs to end October 4% lower to seal its worst performance in 12 years.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER. The only worse one was 2014 (-13%). 2013: +60% 2017: +50% 2021: +40% 2025: -4% Bad Uptober usually means one thing: MOONVEMBER. <a href="https://t.co/6BMrNp4afD" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/6BMrNp4afD</a>— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) <a href="https://twitter.com/rektfencer/status/1981477347397173462?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">October 23, 2025</a>
</blockquote>
The picture is particularly bad for a bull market year;&nbsp;in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin gained at least 40% in October.
Its weakest 10th month of the year was 2014, with a 13% downside.&nbsp;
<h2 id="now-or-never-for-uptober-reclaim">Now or never for “Uptober” reclaim</h2>
Meanwhile, fresh data from network economist Timothy Peterson puts 2025 BTC price action into perspective.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-6x-2026-m2-supply-boom-covid-19-comparisons" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin price to 6X in 2026? M2 supply boom sparks COVID-19 comparisons</a>
The latest bull market stands out from the rest, charts <a href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1981346695045599553" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">uploaded to X</a> this week show,&nbsp;but not in the way that bulls would like.
<figure>
 <img alt="Worst Uptober ever? Bitcoin price risks first ‘red’ October in years" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a153a-4efd-7005-91e4-6e0b2d6340f5" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin October performance comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
At the start of the month, however, Peterson observed that the bulk of “Uptober” upside tends to occur in the second half.
“60% of Bitcoin's full-year performance occurs after October 3rd,” he <a href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1968689994060440013" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">added</a> in prior research from September.
<figure>
 <img alt="Worst Uptober ever? Bitcoin price risks first ‘red’ October in years" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a153a-b863-7742-a493-aa573033d165" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin price seasonality. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
News that the US Federal Reserve could signal the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at its Oct. 29 meeting could provide a “huge signal” for markets, Peterson <a href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1981406041314316703" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a>.
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/dead-cat-bounce-to-118k-5-things-bitcoin-this-week" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, expectations are that the Fed will lower interest rates despite a lack of inflation data, pointing to more favorable conditions for crypto and risk assets going forward.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Worst Uptober ever? Bitcoin price risks first ‘red’ October in years

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