Mike

James

The price of Bitcoin will have a challenging road ahead as long as long-term holders continue to take profits, according to analysts.
The failure of crypto markets to recover was not due to manipulation, paper Bitcoin, or suppression, “just good old-fashioned sellers,” <a href="https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1980000545336381835" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> analyst James Check on Sunday.
Check added that the sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin (<a href="/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer">BTC</a>) holders is still not widely appreciated, and that it was “the source of resistance” at the moment.&nbsp;
The analyst shared a chart showing that the average age of spent coins has drifted higher throughout the cycle, indicating that long-term holders were the ones <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-altcoin-market-sell-off-continues-what-was-the-cause-and-when-will-it-end" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">selling</a>.
Another chart showed that realized profit had spiked to $1.7 billion per day while realized losses climbed to $430 million per day, the third highest level this cycle.
Meanwhile, the “revived supply” from older coins reached its second-highest level at $2.9 billion per day.&nbsp;
<figure>
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/019a002d-09ec-7be7-9baa-1c3827774d58" title="" alt="Bitcoin’s next rally will start once OGs finish selling: Analysts">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Older coins re-enter supply as old hands take profits. Source: <a href="https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1980000545336381835" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1980000545336381835">James Check</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="bitcoin-ogs-taking-profits">Bitcoin OGs taking profits&nbsp;</h2>
Crypto investor Will Clemente <a href="https://x.com/WClementeIII/status/1979996462441209922" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> that “the last year of relative weakness for BTC has mostly been a transfer of supply from OGs to TradFi,” which can be seen in onchain data.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “This dynamic will be mostly irrelevant in the coming years, just as everyone is focused on BTC’s relative weakness.”
</blockquote>
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/john-bollinger-says-to-pay-attention-soon-as-big-move-could-be-imminent" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">John Bollinger says to ‘pay attention soon’ as big move could be imminent</a>
Galaxy Digital CEO <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/novogratz-predicts-cycle-cycle-breaking-new-wave-of-crypto-participation" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Mike Novogratz</a> echoed the sentiment in an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp159u6Q-po" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">interview</a> with Raoul Pal last week.
“There are a lot of people in the Bitcoin world who had rode this so long and finally decided, ‘I wanna buy something’,” he said, citing friends who bought a yacht and part of a sports team.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “People trimming because they’ve had a great run and we’re just digesting that turnover.”
</blockquote>
Novogratz confirmed that the only supply his firm has seen is “old OGs” and miners.&nbsp;
<h2 id="weekly-close-holds-support">Weekly close holds support&nbsp;</h2>
Bitcoin has held onto support with a weekly closing candle at $108,700, <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=COINBASE" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">according</a> to TradingView.
“Continued holding here could see price rally to $120k+ over time. Stability here is absolutely key,” <a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1979971888748110329" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> analyst “Rekt Capital” on Sunday.&nbsp;
The asset had reclaimed $110,000 at the time of writing, but it faces more resistance just above this level.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-bull-run-ethereum-price-crypto-supercycle-hodlers-digest/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ether’s price to go ‘nuclear,’ Ripple seeks $1B XRP buy: Hodler’s Digest</a>

Bitcoin’s next rally will start once OGs finish selling: Analysts

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