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<p>China’s economy likely expanded just 4.7% in the third quarter, marking its slowest pace in a year as weakness in retail sales, investment, and industrial output offset record exports. Despite an $875 billion goods trade surplus, economists warn that the domestic engine of growth is faltering, exposing the limits of Beijing’s reliance on external demand.</p>
<p>Factories have kept shipments abroad at record levels, but Chinese consumers remain cautious. Retail sales rose only 3% in September, while industrial production grew 5%, both the weakest readings this year. Fixed-asset investment was flat, dragged by the prolonged property downturn and declining manufacturing sentiment.</p>
<p>Government borrowing has surged, but much of the stimulus has gone toward infrastructure rather than household income, offering limited support to domestic consumption. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment fell nearly 13% in the first eight months of 2025 as overseas firms scaled back exposure amid trade tensions and weaker growth prospects.</p>
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<p>The slowdown comes just days before the Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum, where leaders will set economic priorities through 2030. Analysts expect the meeting to emphasize the long-delayed goal of consumption-led growth. As Chang Shu, Chief Asia Economist at Bloomberg Economics, noted, “Old growth engines like property and heavy industry are no longer enough, China is confronting a deeper transition.”</p>
<p>The IMF projects 4.8% growth in 2025, easing to 4.2% in 2026, and has urged Beijing to boost household spending and curb industrial subsidies to reduce imbalances. It warned that China risks sliding into a debt-deflation cycle if the government fails to rebalance toward consumer-driven activity.</p>
<p>China’s deceleration comes at a sensitive global moment. With the U.S. tightening tariffs and Europe battling inflation and energy shocks, a weaker Chinese economy threatens to further strain global trade in 2026.</p>
<p>As officials gather in Beijing this week, the message is clear: China’s export engine remains powerful, but without stronger domestic demand, sustaining momentum in the world’s second-largest economy will be increasingly difficult.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-18/chinese-export-boom-can-t-stop-economy-s-slowdown" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Source</a></strong></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.ethnews.com/chinas-export-boom-masks-weak-domestic-economy-ahead-of-crucial-party-meeting/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">China’s Export Boom Masks Weak Domestic Economy Ahead of Crucial Party Meeting</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.ethnews.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETHNews</a>.</p>

China’s Export Boom Masks Weak Domestic Economy Ahead of Crucial Party Meeting

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