Bitcoin

With five Cycle waves nearly complete, <a href="https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">#Bitcoin</a> is concluding its first Supercycle wave since inception and Supercycle wave (II) is likely to begin (see this <a href="https://x.com/TraderJBx/status/1950928275615670444" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">post</a> for details on this count). Given its degree, this wave could correct 15 years of impulsive price action, unprecedented in both scale and duration. Fibonacci time sequences Numbers in the Fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, …) can be added to the year of the first halving to estimate when major motive waves reach their peaks: 2012: first Bitcoin halving 2012 + 1 = 2013: cycle wave I peak 2012 + 5 = 2017: cycle wave III peak 2012 + 13 = 2025: probable cycle wave V peak 2012 + 21 = 2033: next Cycle wave I peak? Similarly, we can add Fibonacci numbers to the starting year of this first Supercycle wave to estimate when major corrective waves reach their lows: 2010: start of Supercycle wave (I) 2010 + 5 = 2015: Cycle wave II bottom 2010 + 8 = 2018: Cycle wave IV bottom 2010 + 21 = 2031: probable Supercycle wave (II) bottom Dumb it down a bit, please… If Cycle wave V (current bull market) peaks in 2025 and Supercycle wave (II) (next bear market) bottoms in 2031, that implies a bear market duration of: 2031 - 2025 = 6 years. Subsequently, Cycle wave I of Supercycle wave (III) could span: 2033 - 2031 = 2 years. Does this mean we won’t have a bull market until 2031? Not necessarily. Given the Supercycle degree and depending on the correction type, the following internal reactionary waves may exhibit significant price appreciation and duration, potentially resembling a bull market: - Wave B, if the correction is a huge flat or zigzag. - Waves X, if the correction is a complex combination. A clear example is the 2022-2024 Ethereum 'bull market', which, in my opinion, was actually a reactionary wave within a 4-year correction, specifically wave X of Primary Wave ④ of Cycle wave III (see this <a href="https://x.com/TraderJBx/status/1946241315231973395" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">post</a>). Targets According to the Elliott Wave Principle, corrections tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus. Applying this to Bitcoin’s Supercycle wave (II), the retracement would likely end within the price range of Cycle wave IV, between $3k and $20k. My initial targets are: - First target: $20k (start of Cycle wave IV) - Second target: $15.5k (low of Primary wave ④ in Cycle wave V) - Third target: $3.7k (Covid low), if things get nasty. However, as traders, we must adapt as price action develops, so it’s prudent to wait for more clarity to better estimate the next bear market’s end. Sentiment A prolonged bear market could serve as the perfect recipe to reset the overwhelmingly bullish long-term sentiment we’re seeing right now: - Saylor acquiring billions in $BTC, securing to date over 3% of the total supply, and stating that “winter is not coming back”. - Institutions, ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies FOMO buying. - Nations building Strategic Bitcoin Reserves worldwide. - US pro-crypto regulations and administration. - $1 million predictions by 2030: Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity Investments), Robert Kiyosaki, etc. Arthur Hayes (BitMEX, CIO) predicts it by 2028. - People thinking we can’t go that low anymore because of the reasons above. Was this content valuable? Like, repost, comment, and follow for more!

BITCOIN: THE 6-YEAR CORRECTION THEORY

cmcdelete@3d6c9654-0c46-4ccc-8649-eab3ca81c748

Other articles published on Oct 18, 2025

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!