SOL ETF

bullish

Solana

Key takeaways:
<ul>
 <li>76% of retail traders are net long on Solana, a historically bullish signal.</li>
 <li>Treasury firms and institutions are accumulating SOL below $200.</li>
 <li>Whale activity is rising ahead of the spot SOL ETF decision on Thursday.</li>
</ul>
Solana (<a href="/solana-price-index" rel="noopener noreferrer">SOL</a>) prices under $200 could be an undervalued range, according to new data highlighting a rare bullish skew among retail traders.
Onchain analytics platform Hyblock <a href="https://x.com/hyblockcapital/status/1977761490280034371" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> that SOL is currently the only major crypto asset that has the highest percentile when it comes to true retail long percentage (TRA). The trading platform said in an X post,&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “Around 76% of retail accounts currently hold net long positions on Solana, a threshold that historically aligns with positive forward returns.”
</blockquote>
Hyblock’s backtest of the signal shows that whenever TRA exceeds 75%, SOL’s seven-day mean and median forward returns rise from around +2.25% to over +5%, while average drawdowns decrease. The analysis added that the risk–reward ratio (RR) nearly doubles during these instances, suggesting stronger follow-through on upward moves and reduced downside volatility.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Technology, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Solana" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199e405-0516-7723-ae34-17f8b360d604" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Solana retail long position analysis. Source: Hyblock Capital/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Likewise, crypto analyst Darkfost <a href="https://x.com/Darkfost_Coc/status/1977839341192827004" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">offered</a> an optimistic outlook, pointing to broader altcoin capitulation as a potential accumulation phase. The trader said that only 10% of Binance-listed altcoins remain above their 200-day moving average, indicating widespread fear and disinterest. Historically, such conditions have preceded notable market rebounds.&nbsp;
Darkfost said, “The best time to gain exposure to altcoins is often when no one wants them anymore,” emphasizing that previous cycles saw similar setups resolve in strong short-term recoveries.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Technology, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Solana" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199e407-1977-7c7d-b237-44b75e684468" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Percentage of altcoins above the 200D-SMA on Binance. Source: X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
At the moment, corporate digital asset treasuries appear to be taking advantage of SOL’s sub-$200 pricing. Solana treasury company Solmate (Nasdaq: SLMT) <a href="https://solstrategies.io/sol-strategies-announces-purchase-of-88433-sol-from-life-offering-proceeds/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">purchased</a> $50 million worth of SOL from the Solana Foundation at a 15% discount, with ARK Invest disclosing a new 11.5% ownership stake. Solmate had earlier raised $300 million to build its digital asset treasury.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, treasury firm SOL Strategies (Nasdaq: STKE) <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/14/3166282/0/en/Solmate-Infrastructure-SLMT-Makes-Historic-Purchase-of-Discounted-SOL-from-the-Solana-Foundation-as-Cathie-Wood-s-Ark-Invest-Discloses-Significant-Position.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acquired</a> an additional 88,433 SOL, including 79,000 locked SOL from the foundation at an average price of $193.93 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 523,433 SOL. These moves underline coordinated accumulation by institutional players at current price levels.
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-buyers-build-bids-at-dollar105k-as-crypto-market-meltdown-nears-conclusion" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">Related: Bitcoin buyers build bids at $105K as crypto market meltdown nears conclusion</a>
<h2 id="can-sol-hold-a-position-above-200">Can SOL hold a position above $200?</h2>
While SOL’s long-term outlook remains constructive, its recent dip and daily close below $190 marked the first bearish break of structure since February, signaling a potential shift in momentum on higher time frames.
Although SOL briefly reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), it now trades between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. This compression typically reflects indecision, where short-term momentum weakens while medium-term support holds, often preceding a larger directional move.
Traders may continue bidding under $200, but a swift recovery could be limited. However, SOL recently retested long-term demand zones from $190 to $170, likely absorbing earlier buy orders during the Oct. 10 flash crash.
A continuation might see SOL consolidate to $160 from $200 if the bullish momentum remains underwhelming in the coming days.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Technology, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Solana" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199e40d-84ac-719d-9e9e-e96425cf2f07" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 SOL one-day chart. Source: <a href="https://tradingview.com/symbols/SOLUSDT/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Cointelegraph/TradingView</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Despite the short-term bearish setup, market analyst Pelin Ay <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/68ed282b4885f90809fc48d2-Whales-Reawaken-Ahead-of-Solanas-ETF-Decision-A-Potential-Catalyst-for-the-Next-" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> that whale order activity on SOL has started increasing again, a trend that has historically preceded rallies of 40%–70%. The analyst said the whales are positioning ahead of the Thursday spot SOL ETF decision, which could catalyze stronger spot demand.&nbsp;
Combined with SOL’s high staking ratio and potential inclusion in multiple publicly listed indexes, a favorable ETF outcome could tighten supply and re-establish SOL’s bullish trajectory above $200.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Technology, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Altcoin Watch, Solana" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199e40a-062b-7ee0-a598-4c1f858979fc" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 SOL spot average order size. Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-drops-8-traders-say-eth-price-breakout-10k-loading" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">Related: Ether drops 8%, but traders say ETH price breakout to $10K is ‘loading’</a>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Data shows 76% of retail traders are long SOL: Will rebound to $200 hold?

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