Bank

Gold

Gains

<p>While central banks multiply gold purchases in an uncertain economic context, Deutsche Bank draws an unprecedented parallel with bitcoin. In a published report, the German bank highlights common dynamics between the two traditionally opposed assets. This analysis questions the place that bitcoin could hold in official reserves in the medium term.</p>
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  <h2 class="in-brief--title" id="in-brief">In brief</h2>
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   <li>Central banks are sharply increasing their gold purchases, reaching an unprecedented level since the 1990s.</li>
   <li>Deutsche Bank notes that gold now represents 24 % of official reserves, compared to a much lower average over the last decade.</li>
   <li>This gold rush reflects a loss of confidence in fiat currencies and a return to tangible assets.</li>
   <li>Bitcoin, like gold, shows a low correlation with traditional assets and decreasing volatility.</li>
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<h2 id="gold-regains-a-central-role-in-central-banks-strategies">Gold regains a central role in central banks’ strategies</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/kiyosaki-sounds-alarm-as-gold-and-bitcoin-hit-records-savers-of-u-s-dollars-are-losers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">gold and bitcoin reach record highs</a>, Deutsche Bank reveals in its latest report <em>“Gold’s reign, Bitcoin’s rise”</em> that the share of the precious metal in official central bank reserves reached 24 % in the second quarter of this year, its highest level since the 1990s.</p>
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<p>This level reflects a major strategic shift in reserve asset management. The bank’s analysts note that official gold demand is now growing at a rate “<em>twice the average for the 2011–2021 period</em>“.</p>
<p>More than just a cyclical rebound, this dynamic is seen as a return of gold to the heart of financial sovereignty logics. The <a href="https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RI-PROD/PROD0000000000605353/Gold%20goes%204K.%20Central%20Banks%20tune%20in..report" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">report</a> specifies that “<em>the renewed accumulation of gold marks a major turning point in global finance, evoking behavior observed during much of the 20th century</em>“.</p>
<p>This resurgence of gold occurs even as the yellow metal has just surpassed, in real terms, its highest historical peaks reached in 1980, according to inflation adjustments.</p>
<p>Deutsche Bank identifies several factors explaining this late evolution and the importance of the current moment :</p>
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 <li>Decades of massive sales by central banks, notably in the 1990s and 2000s, which had helped keep prices under pressure ;</li>
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 <li>Institutional disposal obligations, notably for certain funds under regulatory constraints ;</li>
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 <li>The lasting effect of the transition to the fiat currency era, since the abandonment of the gold standard in the late 1970s ;</li>
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 <li>The loss of the formal role of gold as a reference asset, established in 1979 when the IMF banned member states from tying their currency to gold ;</li>
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 <li>The gradual return of distrust towards fiat currencies, amplified by multiple monetary crises and unconventional monetary expansion policies.</li>
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<p>In sum, gold seems to be reclaiming a function it had not officially held for over forty years. An evolution which, according to Deutsche Bank, opens the way to new interpretations of reserve assets, including digital ones.</p>
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<h2 id="h-bitcoin-a-trajectory-that-catches-the-attention-of-institutions">Bitcoin : a trajectory that catches the attention of institutions</h2>
<p>In the same report, Marion Laboure, macro-strategist at Deutsche Bank, draws an explicit parallel between the dynamics of gold and those of Bitcoin. She <a href="https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RI-PROD/PDFVIEWER.calias?pdfViewerPdfUrl=PROD0000000000605107" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">notes</a> that these two assets share major common characteristics : “<em>a low correlation with traditional assets, historically high volatility, although sharply decreasing for Bitcoin, and a role as a safe haven during times of instability</em>“.</p>
<p>According to her, these similarities could pave the way for wider institutional adoption, possibly even integration into central banks’ balance sheets.</p>
<p>However, Laboure does not downplay the remaining obstacles. She acknowledges that bitcoin remains an asset “<em>backed by nothing</em>“, which represents an ideological hurdle for many institutions. Added to this are technical and economic limitations, such as “<em>limited use, perceived high risk, speculative nature, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and liquidity constraints</em>“. Despite these reservations, Deutsche Bank considers it plausible that bitcoin and gold “<em>could both appear in central banks’ balance sheets by 2030</em>“.</p>
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<p>If this hypothesis materializes, it would signify institutional legitimization of bitcoin, but also a redefinition of reserve assets in an increasingly multipolar world. The growing interest of some states in including BTC in their strategic reserves, as evidenced by <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-a-summit-meeting-to-advance-the-us-strategic-reserve/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the recent summit meeting to advance the project in the United States</a>, although marginal for now, could accelerate this dynamic.</p>

Central Banks Stock Up On Gold, Bitcoin Gains Traction

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