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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes has declared that Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle is officially “dead.” In a recent blog post, he argued that this change is driven not by halving events or institutional investments, but by broader global monetary and economic forces.
In a Thursday <a href="https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/long-live-the-king?r=gu0uw&amp;utm_medium=ios&amp;triedRedirect=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">post</a>, “Long Live the King!”, Hayes said, “As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run.” However, he emphasized, “the four-year pattern worked in the past, but it is no longer applicable and will fail this time.”
Hayes believes Bitcoin’s price movements are driven by the supply and flow of money, mainly the US dollar and Chinese yuan. He explained that previous bull markets ended when monetary conditions tightened, not because of timing. Consequently, he said the ongoing market uptrend will last as long as global liquidity expands.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="liquidity-takes-the-driver-s-seat">Liquidity takes the driver’s seat</h2>
According to Hayes, the current cycle differs sharply from the past. The US Treasury has injected around $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo program into markets. Besides, the US President Donald Trump’s focus on “running it hot” through easier monetary policies supports risk assets like Bitcoin. Moreover, plans to loosen bank regulations and boost lending are already underway.
The <a href="https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/09/23/hayes-new-essay-four-seven-expands-trumps-fed-takeover/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">US Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates again</a>, even though prices are still higher than they want. Traders now expect another rate cut in October and possibly one more in December. Simply put, cheaper money could keep fueling Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Hayes also noted that although China is less aggressive with stimulus this time, its focus on ending deflation suggests it won’t drain liquidity. “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing,” Hayes said. “They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”
Bitcoin trades at $122,036 with daily volume above $61 billion, according to <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinMarketCap</a>. However, <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/68e744913272c84398d73469-Bitcoin-Records-Nearly-8-Drop-in-Open-Interest-After-Reaching-a-15-Billion-Peak-" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">data</a> from CryptoQuant shows Binance’s open interest fell 7.9% since October 6 to $13.88 billion. This decline signals reduced leverage as traders take profits after strong gains.
Hayes thinks Bitcoin’s future now moves with the flow of global money, not the usual four-year rhythm. As long as central banks keep pumping cash into the system, Bitcoin’s rise could keep rolling.
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
 Also Read: <a href="https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/10/08/peter-schiff-warns-bitcoin-could-drop-as-gold-hits-4000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Peter Schiff Warns Bitcoin Could Drop as Gold Hits $4,000</a>
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Arthur Hayes Declares Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Over

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The Crypto Times

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