Gemini

Bitcoin

Rekt

While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may not play out exactly as it has in the past, that doesn’t mean the concept is entirely dead, according to a crypto executive.
“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” crypto exchange Gemini’s head of APAC region, Saad Ahmed, told Cointelegraph during a sit-down interview at Token2049 in Singapore.
“It ultimately stems from people get really excited and overextend themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium,” Ahmed said.
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 Saad Ahmed spoke to Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore. Source: Cointelegraph
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However, Ahmed said <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-volatility-institutions-retail-traders-strategy-michael-saylor" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">growing institutional involvement</a> in the crypto industry could help the market absorb some of the volatility. “You’ll see some of the volatility, kind of flag off, but you’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because ultimately, it’s driven by human emotion,” Ahmed said.
The debate over whether the four-year cycle is still relevant to Bitcoin (<a href="/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) has been ongoing within the crypto industry recently.
On Aug. 21, crypto <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-year-old-cycle-not-dead-crypto-analysts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">analytics company Glassnode</a> said Bitcoin’s recent price action may still be tracking its historic four-year halving cycle.
<h2 id="october-may-mark-bitcoin-s-cycle-peak-if-patterns-repeat">October may mark Bitcoin’s cycle peak if patterns repeat</h2>
However, the deadline <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-year-old-cycle-not-dead-crypto-analysts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">for Bitcoin’s cycle peak</a> may fall this month if past patterns hold, according to crypto analyst Rekt Capital.&nbsp;
In July, he said that if <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-bull-run-coming-to-end-crypto-analyst-forecast" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the cycle mirrors 2020</a>, the market would likely peak in October, approximately 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt said. However, Oct. 1 marked the beginning of Q4, historically Bitcoin’s strongest quarter since 2013, with an average return of 79.39%, <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/today" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="https://www.coinglass.com/today">according</a> to CoinGlass.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-chases-new-highs-as-crypto-market-cap-crosses-dollar4-21t" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin chases new highs as crypto market cap crosses $4.21T</a>
It comes as Bitcoin surged 11.5% over the past seven days, climbing to $123,850 on Friday, just short of its $124,100 all-time high set on Aug. 14, <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">according</a> to CoinMarketCap.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">said on July 26</a> he doesn’t expect Bitcoin’s price to follow the cycle as it has in the past.
“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan <a href="https://x.com/kyle_chasse/status/1948700207840944193" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a>. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” Hougan <a href="https://x.com/Matt_Hougan/status/1948709817125593227" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">added</a>.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/hong-kong-isnt-loophole-chinese-crypto-firms-think/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Hong Kong isn’t the loophole Chinese crypto firms think it is</a>

‘Very likely’ Bitcoin cycle will continue in some form: Gemini exec

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