Long

bullish

Solana

DeFi

<p>Solana records a historic high : 71.8 million SOL are engaged in futures contracts. This peak in open interest could suggest a rise in strength. However, the crypto drops 18 % in one week, marking one of the worst market performances. This discrepancy between bullish speculation and price collapse raises questions: is the market fueled by excessive leverage?</p>
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  <h2 class="in-brief--title" id="in-brief">In brief</h2>
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   <li>Solana records a record open interest of 71.8 million SOL on its futures contracts, despite an uncertain market context.</li>
   <li>SOL price drops 18 % over the week, one of the worst performances in the top 20 crypto, raising concerns about a possible long squeeze.</li>
   <li>Technical signals are bearish, with a dropping RSI and chart patterns that suggest a return to $120 or even $110.</li>
   <li>A scenario of a prolonged SOL pullback is shaping if current support levels break, amid slowing network activity.</li>
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<h2 id="h-a-record-open-interest-and-a-risk-of-long-squeeze">A Record Open Interest and a Risk of Long Squeeze</h2>
<p>Solana has crossed an unprecedented threshold on its futures contracts, with open interest reaching 71.8 million SOL, approximately 14.5 billion dollars, while <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/solana-loses-12-in-two-days-investors-on-alert/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the crypto undergoes a sharp correction</a>.</p>
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<p>This peak in open positions occurs while the asset price has fallen 18 % over the week, one of the poor performances among the top 20 crypto this year. Such a configuration reveals a growing imbalance. Perpetual funding rates are again positive at 0.0043 %, compared to -0.0065 % before, reflecting a dominance of leveraged long positions in a market nevertheless downward oriented.</p>
<p>The classic scenario of a “long squeeze” appears likely, as prices continue to fall despite increasing interest in derivatives.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-open-interest-72m-sol-record-why-price-falling" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">market data point</a> to an overall unfavorable dynamic for bulls, with several negative technical signals :</p>
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 <li>The net taker volume is mostly selling, indicating a decrease in the most aggressive orders ;</li>
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 <li>The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) trends downward, revealing that selling pressure also comes from the spot market, not just derivatives ;</li>
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 <li>The <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-markets/solana-sol-en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">SOL price</a> is heading for its lowest weekly close since late August, suggesting a significant technical break.</li>
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<p>Therefore, the current behavior of the Solana derivatives market does not show regained confidence, but rather an imbalance where heavy leverage use could amplify the ongoing correction.</p>
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<h2 id="network-fundamentals-decline-solana-adoption-slows-down">Network Fundamentals Decline : Solana Adoption Slows Down</h2>
<p>Beyond signals from derivative markets, Solana’s on-chain data also show signs of weakness. Indeed, the total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem has dropped 16 % over the past seven days.</p>
<p>At the same time, the number of daily transactions has declined by 11 %, indicating a slowdown in on-chain activity. This pullback comes as Solana faces increasing competition from other layer 1 blockchains, in a context where technical innovation alone no longer suffices to maintain user traction.</p>
<p>The RSI (relative strength index) fell from 69 to 37 since September 18, indicating growing bearish momentum, though not yet in oversold territory.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, chart analysts observe an inverted “V” pattern, often a herald of bearish reversals. This pattern suggests a return to a support zone around $155, or even a deeper pullback to $120 if the movement continues. The contrast between these signals and the record open interest level triggers the specter of an imminent long squeeze.</p>
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<p>In this context, several scenarios remain possible. A rebound could occur if the price manages to stabilize around the identified technical zones and if Solana’s development team manages to reactivate interest through innovations or strategic partnerships. Conversely, a lack of positive catalysts combined with persistent selling pressure could precipitate a more prolonged correction phase.</p>

$14.5B Open Interest Raises Questions For Solana Bulls

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