Bitcoin

when

Key points:
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin and altcoins are lagging gold and stocks when it comes to new all-time highs.</li>
 <li>Research suggests that liquidity patterns are partly to blame as traders withdraw stablecoins.</li>
 <li>History shows that traditional risk assets need to “cool” before crypto surges.</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) is dropping as crypto markets fail to copy gold and stocks.&nbsp;Is the bull market over?
New research from onchain analytics platform <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/68d457983cad2721bc5e3ef9-Why-Crypto-Lags-While-Traditional-Markets-Hit-ATHs-A-Look-at-Stablecoin-Reserves" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">CryptoQuant</a> shares four key reasons why Bitcoin and altcoins are “red” — Fed rate cuts, stablecoin reserves, leveraged traders and historical norms.
<h2 id="crypto-still-at-end-of-liquidity-pipeline">Crypto still at “end of liquidity pipeline”</h2>
Bitcoin has become stuck recently as liquidity games keep bulls away from challenging all-time highs.
At the same time, both gold and US stock markets continue to post repeated all-time highs, leading to concerns that crypto has <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-adoption-one-cycle-away-5b-users" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">failed to become</a> a mainstream asset class.&nbsp;
CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan has other ideas. Crypto, they argue, is simply repeating historical patterns.
“In the early phase of rate cuts, institutional capital tends to move first into high-liquidity assets like equities and gold,” they wrote in one of their Quicktake blog posts, referring to interest-rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “Crypto—especially altcoins—sits at the end of the liquidity pipeline, benefiting only when risk appetite broadens.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Four reasons Bitcoin is failing to copy all-time highs for gold and stocks" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/01997fec-fd19-74b0-b95e-624a0136b987" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Crypto market cap vs gold one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
XWIN compared the current market setup on Bitcoin and largest altcoin Ether (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETH</a>) to that from a year ago, and found key similarities.
“The pattern mirrors 2024: a front-run rally after the Fed’s rate cut, followed by a correction as liquidity failed to fully rotate into crypto. Only after traditional assets cooled did BTC and ETH outperform,” they added.
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/how-high-can-bitcoin-price-go-gold-hits-3-5k-record-high" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, Bitcoin in particular has long been known to follow gold higher after a delay of several months.
<h2 id="lag-and-leap-for-bitcoin-vs-stocks">”Lag and leap” for Bitcoin vs. stocks?</h2>
Continuing, XWIN flagged stablecoin reserves as another factor creating a delayed reaction to the risk-asset moonshot.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bollinger-bands-tighter-than-ever-107k-max-pain" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Bollinger Bands tighter than ever as trader eyes $107K ‘max pain’</a>
The overall stablecoin supply hit a record $308 billion this month. Still, at the same time, more stablecoins are leaving exchanges than entering, showing a risk-off or profit-taking mentality among traders.
“Liquidity is parked off-exchange—bridged, sidelined, or used in private markets—rather than actively deployed to buy BTC or ETH,” they said.
<figure>
 <img alt="Four reasons Bitcoin is failing to copy all-time highs for gold and stocks" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/01997fe8-3eb0-7b3a-acd0-d97aa1b014e3" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USDT one-day chart with exchange stablecoin data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Similar issues impact accumulation, as data from derivatives platforms showed a trader preference for “hedging and leverage strategies,” a classic response to sideways market action.
“History suggests Bitcoin tends to “lag, then leap,” XWIN concluded.
<blockquote>
 “Following equity ATHs, BTC has historically gained +12% in 30 days and +35% in 90 days. Short-term headwinds remain—QT, Treasury liquidity absorption, and looming options expiry—but the structural setup favors crypto once liquidity cycles catch up.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Four reasons Bitcoin is failing to copy all-time highs for gold and stocks" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-09/01997fe9-c3ec-707b-a8ee-cef9417c7ac4" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD vs S&amp;P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
As Cointelegraph <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bulls-favored-in-22-6b-btc-monthly-options-expiry" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_self">reported</a>, this Friday’s $22.6 billion options expiry is significant, potentially impacting prices moving forward.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Four reasons Bitcoin is failing to copy all-time highs for gold and stocks

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