HODL

Waves

Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin

when

Bitcoin’s (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) recent price rally above $100,000 has coincided with a sharp drop in the supply held by its long-term holders. This suggests that some of the market’s most seasoned Bitcoin investors are booking record profits as BTC price climbed toward the six-figure milestone. 
<h2 id="realized-profits-for-bitcoin-longs-hit-record-highs">Realized profits for Bitcoin longs hit record highs</h2>
The chart below shows entities that hold Bitcoin for more than 155 days as long-term holders (LTH). Their behavior can often reflect a shift in market sentiment.
As of Dec. 19, the supply held by Bitcoin’s LTH dropped to $13.31 billion compared to its local peak of around $14.23 billion two months ago, according to <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/supply.LthSum?a=BTC&amp;ema=0&amp;mAvg=0&amp;mMedian=0&amp;s=1513709059&amp;u=1734480000&amp;zoom=" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/supply.LthSum?a=BTC&amp;ema=0&amp;mAvg=0&amp;mMedian=0&amp;s=1513709059&amp;u=1734480000&amp;zoom=">Glassnode data</a>. 
In the same period, BTC’s price has risen from around $58,000 to over $100,000, indicating that LTHs have been selling their holding at local highs.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin price has legs above $100K despite holders booking record profits — Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193dedc-5b6d-7a68-8457-cbc598ed61ce" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Total Bitcoin supply held by LTH. Source: Glassnode 
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="bitcoin-uptrend-above-100-000-is-far-from-being-exhausted">Bitcoin uptrend above $100,000 is far from being exhausted</h2>
Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) are stepping in to absorb sell-side pressure from long-term holders.
Notably, the LTH supply’s decline has coincided with the rise in the Bitcoin supply held by STHs. The ability of STHs to absorb this selling pressure has likely played a key role in sustaining Bitcoin’s price momentum above $100,000.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, BTC Markets, Tech Analysis, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193df2b-fbc2-7125-a8e9-3da549d91ce4" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin total supply held by STHs. Source: Glassnode
 </figcaption>
</figure>
“The proportion of wealth held by these new investors has not yet reached the heights experienced during previous ATH cycle tops,” noted Glassnode analysts UkuriaOC and CryptoVizArt in their weekly <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-51-2024/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-51-2024/">report</a>, adding:
<blockquote>
 “The interpretation here is that the market may not have reached the level of euphoric fervor, and saturation by speculators seen in prior cycles.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, BTC Markets, Tech Analysis, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193df2e-d347-7e44-b760-5f6611207772" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin realized HODL Waves of 24-hour—3-month BTC holders. Source: Glassnode
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Another useful metric to assess the state of the market is the True Market Deviation (AVIV Ratio), which measures the average unrealized profit— or paper gains—held by active investors. 
Based on participants’ profitability, this ratio helps determine whether the market is overextended or still has room to run.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/double-digit-drop-in-bitcoin-profit-taking-metric-hints-that-btc-is-ready-to-rally-analyst" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/double-digit-drop-in-bitcoin-profit-taking-metric-hints-that-btc-is-ready-to-rally-analyst">Double-digit drop in Bitcoin profit-taking metric hints it’s ‘ready’ to rally — Analyst</a>
Historically, bull markets tend to peak when nearly all investor categories achieve substantial profits. This scenario often results in overwhelming sell-side pressure, as investors lock in gains while new buyers hesitate to enter at elevated prices. 
The AVIV Ratio’s extreme band, defined as +3 standard deviations (σ), typically signals such overheated conditions. As of Dec. 19, it stood at 1.81, well below the extreme band of +3σ (2.3). 
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin price has legs above $100K despite holders booking record profits — Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193dee8-954d-7fbb-b423-3b74496a0a84" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin AVIV Ratio tops. Source: Glassnode
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This suggests that while profits are rising, the market has not yet reached levels of unsustainable euphoria. So, Bitcoin could continue to climb even higher before profit-taking and reduced demand create a real market reversal.
<h2 id="bitfinex-says-bitcoin-price-drop-will-be-mild">Bitfinex says Bitcoin price drop will be mild</h2>
Analysts at Bitfinex exchange <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-200k-mid-2025-mild-corrections-bitfinex" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-200k-mid-2025-mild-corrections-bitfinex">estimate</a> Bitcoin correction to be mild in the coming months, stating that growing institutional demand will eventually propel BTC price to $145,000 by mid-2025, or $200,000 in the best-case scenario.
As of Dec. 19, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) are currently managing a little over $37 billion worth of assets, compared to $24.23 billion at the start of November, according to Farside Investors <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://farside.co.uk/btc/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://farside.co.uk/btc/">data</a>.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin price has legs above $100K despite holders booking record profits — Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-12/0193def0-e879-7b7d-9abb-ccdad83e85b2" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin ETF cumulative net flows. Source: Farside Investors 
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Meanwhile, speculation is mounting within the crypto industry over the possibility that the incoming Trump administration could establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States, a move that could push the price toward <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-bitcoin-us-reserve-asset-day-one-how-high-will-btc-price-go" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-bitcoin-us-reserve-asset-day-one-how-high-will-btc-price-go">$800,000 by the end of 2025</a>.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price has legs above $100K despite holders booking record profits — Analysis

Table of Contents

Cointelegraph

Other articles published on Dec 19, 2024

Crypto Market Update: Bitcoin Rallies, TON Wallet Launches, and $2.2 Billion in Hacks Uncovered

Santa’s Crypto Picks: 3 Altcoins to Watch as the Market Heats Up

Michael Saylor, Elon Musk's Bitcoin 2020 Discussion Flashback: Details

Kicking Yourself Over Bitcoin Cash? This New Layer 1 Project is Making Splashes as the Best Crypt...

BTC reclaims $100K but weekly chart forming ‘bearish engulfing’ candlestick

Top 5 Altcoins with Game-Changing Potential You Need to Watch

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!