Solana

The probability of a <a href="https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2024/09/03/second-solana-etf-approved-in-brazil-poodlana-up-next/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Solana ETF</a> being approved on Polymarket has dropped to the lowest it has ever been. The current decentralized prediction platform gives only a 3% probability of approval. This reflects a rather sharp decrease from the previous estimates. Earlier, the odds of an ETF of this kind had stayed within 15%.
The polymarket downgrade occurs against the fight to approve other cryptocurrency ETFs. The SEC approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024, and Solana’s outlook is not good either. Some enthusiasts still believe in the Solana ETF’s long-term prospects, although the short-term outlook has been thrown out the window.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-steep-regulatory-hurdles">Steep Regulatory Hurdles</h2>
The biggest challenge of a Solana ETF, as seen, is the regulatory issues. However, there are divergent views on how best to approach them. Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, said,
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
 ”I don’t think there will be any more spot crypto ETFs approved in this administration, and I’ve talked to people that are familiar with the process.”
</blockquote>
He said many changes to the regulatory environment or political leadership would be required to put the Solana or XRP ETF back into the mix.
On the other hand, <a href="https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2024/09/12/analyst-refutes-critics-bitcoin-etfs-see-117m-in-inflows/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Matt Hougan</a>, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, is still optimistic about the future of crypto ETFs. He added that Bitcoin ETFs have also been rejected for years before being approved.
Hougan said that more crypto ETFs, including Solana, could be launched quickly once the regulatory questions are answered. Brazil’s approval of a Solana ETF is also positive.
This is expected to set a precedent for other markets. It can open the door for approval in the United States. Nonetheless, much change in the regulation would still be required to make it happen.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bitwise-champions-solana-etf-despite-odds">Bitwise Champions Solana ETF Despite Odds</h2>
However, Polymarket’s prediction may not be entirely accurate, as industry experts do not completely rule out the possibility of a Solana ETF in the long run. Hougan added that the approval of Bitcoin and <a href="https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2024/08/12/us-spot-ethereum-etfs-see-first-positive-inflows-amid-price-drop/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ethereum ETFs</a> paves the way for the approval in the future.
He also pointed out that regulatory relief is the way to new ETF ideas. The firm has been at the forefront of offering data support to some of its ETF applications. As per Hougan, Bitwise continues to support the Solana ecosystem and is keen on getting approval for the Solana ETF.
Though Geraci and Hougan have different opinions on the time frame, both agree that there should be regulatory certainty. The upcoming U.S. presidential election may create a more favorable regulatory environment.
Nevertheless, until a shift in this approach is observable, the chances of a Solana ETF are slim, which aligns with Polymarket’s 3% forecast. The need for clarity on the approval remains a significant concern for market players.
The lack of clear direction from the SEC has been a cause of concern to many in the industry, especially as other countries, such as Brazil, continue to launch new Crypto ETFs. If Solana is to succeed, then the U.S. regulatory environment must change dramatically.
The post <a href="https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2024/09/19/solana-etf-hopes-dim-to-3-but-optimists-remain/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Solana ETF Hopes Dim to 3%, But Optimists Remain</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.thecoinrepublic.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">The Coin Republic</a>.

Solana ETF Hopes Dim to 3%, But Optimists Remain

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