United

Bitcoin

Arthur

Reserve

<p>Bitcoin struggles to capitalize on recent U.S. economic data. Despite an expected slowdown in inflation, the leading cryptocurrency fell by over 3% this Wednesday, dropping below the $56,000 mark.</p>
<h2 id="h-un-contexte-macroeconomique-en-apparence-favorable">An apparently favorable macroeconomic context</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/the-american-cpi-this-thursday-could-change-the-game-for-cryptos/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Consumer Price Index</a> (CPI) in the United States increased by 2.5% year-on-year in August, the smallest rise since February 2021. This data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, confirms a moderation in inflation in line with economists’ forecasts.</p>
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<p>Paradoxically, this news was not enough to support <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dismisses-cpi-print-daily-btc-price-losses-pass-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin’s price</a>. The flagship cryptocurrency thus fell below $56,000, ignoring what could have been perceived as a positive signal for risk assets. Traders appear to have already priced in these expectations.</p>
<p>The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now reflects an 85% probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 18, up from 66% the day before. However, this prospect of monetary easing has also failed to reverse Bitcoin’s downward trend.</p>
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<h2 id="h-un-decouplage-revelateur-d-une-aversion-au-risque">A decoupling revealing a risk aversion</h2>
<p>CryptoQuant’s analysis platform highlights an alarming phenomenon in its latest report: the decoupling between Bitcoin and gold.</p>
<p>“<em>A period of negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold, with a rise in gold prices and a fall in Bitcoin, generally signals a risk-averse environment</em>“, explains the analyst.</p>
<p>This trend is part of a broader context where even <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/50-basis-points-cut-by-the-fed-an-imminent-danger-for-bitcoin/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the weakening of the dollar is failing to support Bitcoin’s price</a>. CryptoQuant interprets this situation as a sign of “<em>broader risk aversion or financial stress</em>” in global markets.</p>
<p>Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, provides further insight into this paradox. According to him, the anticipated Fed rate cut might actually be <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/the-feds-rate-cut-is-not-a-good-sign-for-bitcoin-heres-why/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">a bad omen for Bitcoin</a>. This analysis suggests that investors might perceive the accommodative monetary policy as a sign of economic weakness rather than an investment opportunity.</p>

Bitcoin Against The Grain: The Downturn Continues Despite The Good Signals.

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