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Bitcoin’s correlation to macro factors remains a hot topic as global monetary policies and the asset’s price slumped over the last month
Token Bay Capital founder and managing partner Lucy Gazmararian said in a CNBC interview Wednesday morning that Bitcoin (<a href="https://crypto.news/price/bitcoin/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) can move in tandem with the stock market.
The trend appears more evident as digital assets become entangled with traditional finance, Gazmararian noted. Analysts have marked a correlation between BTC and macroeconomics due to geopolitical uncertainty and global monetary policies like rate hikes or cuts employed by the U.S. <a href="https://crypto.news/?s=Fed" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Federal Reserve</a>.
Reverse may also be the case in some scenarios since investors have historically treated Bitcoin as a “risk on” asset and a hedge against inflation. Gazmararian <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/06/26/bitcoin-prices-moving-in-tandem-with-macro-backdrop-token-bay-capital.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">said</a> the correlations sometimes break down as BTC fundamentally differs from other asset classes like bonds and equity.
You might also like: <a href="https://crypto.news/bitcoin-etfs-begin-third-week-of-outflows-amid-market-wide-fud/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> Bitcoin ETFs begin third week of outflows amid market-wide FUD </a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="bitcoin-top-expected-by-late-2025">Bitcoin top expected by late 2025</h2>
Despite BTC’s 9% drop in the past 30 days and U.S. inflation concerns, Token Bay Capital’s founder believes the <a href="https://crypto.news/?s=bitcoin" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> bull run is only halfway through at most. Gazmararian pointed to past “four-year boom busts” noticed in crypto markets. In other words, the ongoing market retracement occurred in previous cycles, especially after the halving.&nbsp;
“10%, 15%, to 30% drops are really keeping with past cycles,” said Gazmararian. Data from BiTBO and TradingView showed slumps of as much as 40% following Bitcoin’s quadrennial <a href="https://crypto.news/?s=Bitcoin+halving" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">code change</a>, followed by parabolic runs to new highs.&nbsp;
According to the charts, BTC has never returned to its pre-halving prices after completing the transition. The managing partner from Token Bay Capital predicted that history could repeat itself, and if this pattern plays out, markets may see a Bitcoin top in late 2025.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" width="1024" height="576" src="https://crypto.news/app/uploads/2024/06/graph-1-1024x576.png" alt="Analyst: Bitcoin bull run far from over - 23">
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 BTC pre=halving and post-halving data | Source: BiTBO
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Conversely, Gazmararian surmised that BTC’s continued bull run may be questioned if the asset value declines by more than 50% in the next few months.&nbsp;A 50% price dip would tumble Bitcoin under $32,000 at current levels.
Per IntoTheBlock, over 84% of long-term BTC holders are in profit, but 71% of short-term buyers are “out of the money” or in losses. Investors in the latter category acquired the cryptocurrency between $52,490.68 and $71,050. This means that aggressive declines could spell massive losses for many buyers.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" width="1024" height="521" src="https://crypto.news/app/uploads/2024/06/Screenshot-516-1024x521.png" alt="Bitcoin money charts">
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 BTC investor financial data | Source: <a href="https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/BTC/deep-dive?group=financials&amp;chart=inAndOut" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">IntoTheBlock</a>
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Read more: <a href="https://crypto.news/bitcoin-plummets-10-in-10-days-learn-how-to-spot-the-next-crash/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> Bitcoin plummets 10% in 10 days: Learn how to spot the next crash </a>

Analyst: Bitcoin bull run far from over

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