2024

Bitcoin

Rekt

Bitcoin’s (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) upcoming supply halving and its historical price action, increasing inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and bullish technical setup suggest that BTC is on the path to a new all-time high.&nbsp;
After a fairly bullish year in 2023, 2024 provided <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/spot-bitcoin-etf-what-to-expect" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs</a> by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) a surge in the price of Bitcoin, Ether (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETH</a>), Solana (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/solana-price-index" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">SOL</a>) and other cryptocurrencies.
As Bitcoin rallied above $50,000, its <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-1-trillion-market-cap#:~:text=on%20social%20networks-,The%20total%20market%20value%20of%20Bitcoin's%20circulating%20supply%20crossed%20%241,hard%20capped%20at%2021%20million." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">market capitalization crossed $1 trillion</a>, rising to $1.02 trillion on Feb. 16, reflecting a 118% increase over the last 12 months.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-02/e566357c-4bc1-473f-b2b0-1731d0173be3.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Bitcoin market capitalization (USD). Source: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/oV0Ye7dq/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a>
 </figcaption>
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The growth has been accompanied by a 110% leap in the price of Bitcoin over the same period.
<h2 id="halving-and-historical-data-back-bitcoin-s-potential">Halving and historical data back Bitcoin’s potential</h2>
Many traders believe that a key factor in BTC’s price action is the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-2024" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">upcoming halving event </a>which is less than 70 days away.
Bitcoin’s price action tends to follow a certain cyclical pattern with analysts painting parallels between historical patterns and the current price trajectory. This points to a possible bull cycle similar to those witnessed in the past.
Likewise, BTC’s historical bull runs appear to follow four-year cycles, often triggered by events like <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-economics-of-bitcoin-halving-understanding-the-effects-on-price-and-market-sentiment" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin halving</a>, which reduces the rate of BTC issuance.
The next halving event is set to happen in mid-April 2024 when the number of BTC rewards issued to miners per block will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Data shows the halving has been a positive factor for the price of BTC, and bull runs can begin <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-all-time-high-precede-2024-halving" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">months before the event</a> – as is being witnessed — and continue until BTC price hits a new all-time high.
Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital <a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1757054045594747015?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">explains</a> the “5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving” with the “Parabolic Uptrend” as the final phase where BTC price grows exponentially reaching new all-time highs.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-02/be634a9e-d317-49eb-b260-350f24576ebb.jpeg">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">5 phases of Bitcoin Halving. Source: Rekt Capital/X
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Similar sentiment was shared by independent investor Lady of Crypto who projects that Bitcoin’s parabolic uptrend will take 7 to 8 months after halving with BTC breaking all-time highs in November 2024.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 All Time High In the last two cycles, Bitcoin broke its all-time high 7 and then 8 months after the halving. The ETF has so far not propelled BTC to 100k overnight as many assumed. I think that like the last two time, it will be 7-8 months, so, November 2024! 6/12 <a href="https://t.co/9Lo3E1Ur3N" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/9Lo3E1Ur3N</a>— Lady of Crypto (@LadyofCrypto1) <a href="https://twitter.com/LadyofCrypto1/status/1747662265409823086?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">January 17, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
Investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors Timothy Peterson agrees, saying,
<blockquote>
 “Bitcoin will hit $100K by August.”
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 Yesterday <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">#Bitcoin</a> hit (almost exactly) a 100% gain in 180 days. That has happened 41 times since 2015. Bitcoin went higher 78% of the time. The average return for the next 180 days was also 100%. As of today and based on historical data, there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin… <a href="https://t.co/KvXHYWdIUY" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/KvXHYWdIUY</a>— Timothy Peterson, CFA CAIA (@nsquaredcrypto) <a href="https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto/status/1758120752157466708?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">February 15, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
While some traders believe the 2024 halving will be the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-2024-halving-will-be-its-most-important-interview-with-charles-edwards" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">most important</a> ever, others believe it may be different this time.
<h2 id="capital-continues-to-flow-into-the-spot-bitcoin-etfs">Capital continues to flow into the spot Bitcoin ETFs</h2>
Capital inflows into <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etf-investment-portfolio" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">spot Bitcoin ETFs</a> continue to gain momentum. Data from Farside Investors shows that a total of $4.5 billion have come into Bitcoin ETFs just a little over a month since they <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/first-spot-bitcoin-etf-in-us-begins-trading-in-pre-market-with-double-digit-gains" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">began trading on Jan. 11</a>.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-02/1214e15f-8746-4a35-a834-84dc4c104830.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Bitcoin ETF flows (USD). Source: <a href="https://farside.co.uk/?p=997" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Farside Investors</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
While outflows from GBTC were larger than total inflows into the new ETFs at the beginning, this situation has changed, with BlackRock's IBIT recording one of the most successful ETF launches in history <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/blackrock-bitcoin-etf-holds-100k-btc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">surpassing 100,000 BTC</a> assets under management (AuM) on Feb. 13.
Demand for Bitcoin ETFs accelerated this week, recording an average of $450 million in inflows per day. Feb. 16 saw all spot Bitcoin ETF AuM come to 258,770 BTC – worth about $13.4 billion at current rates.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 JUST IN: The 9 new Bitcoin ETFs now hold 258,770 <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$BTC</a> in total, buying an average of ~10,000 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">#Bitcoin</a> a day. This is about 11x the daily issuance from the block reward. CHART: Daily number of Bitcoin acquired by ETFs net of GBTC outflows. <a href="https://t.co/65i0CztzjE" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/65i0CztzjE</a>— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) <a href="https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1758473309455315212?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">February 16, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
In comments to Cointelegraph, Head of Marketing and Communications at dYdX Foundation Tristan Dickinson said that “the rapid adoption of Bitcoin ETF” contributed to <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-rally-to-49-9k-puts-spotlight-on-halving-and-spot-etf-supply-shortage-narrative#:~:text=Bitcoin%20price%20rose%20to%20an,two%2Dyear%20high%20at%20%2450%2C000." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC’s push above $50,000</a>.
Dickinson added,
<blockquote>
 “This adoption signals the maturity of the sector, solidifying BTC as an asset class similar to gold. With the halving coming up in April it's increasingly likely that we are starting to see signs of a bullish market.”
</blockquote>
<h2 id="bitcoin-s-technical-set-up-reflects-btc-s-bullish-potential">Bitcoin’s technical set-up reflects BTC’s bullish potential</h2>
Bitcoin’s price chart has formed a rounded bottom chart pattern on the weekly chart. Buyers have possibly set their target on the neckline of the governing chart pattern at $69,220, which coincides with the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-briefly-hits-69k-ath-before-plummeting-back-to-earth" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">all-time highs reached in November 2021</a>.
A weekly candlestick close above this level would confirm a bullish breakout from the rounded bottom formation ushering BTC into price discovery.
The relative strength indicator (RSI) for Bitcoin has moved into the overbought zone, edging close to the 80-point mark and reinforcing the bulls’ dominance in the market.
The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) also produced a bullish cross on the weekly chart. This happened in early January when the 100-week EMA crossed above the 200-week EMA.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-02/3e5e3e6f-bdee-498c-8afe-143390769406.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Trader Aksel Kibar spotted BTC trading in an ascending parallel channel on the weekly chart forecasting a rally to $65,000 and beyond if the price breaks above the channel.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 The upper boundary of the trend channel. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTCUSD&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$BTCUSD</a> Break that and we rally to 65K. <a href="https://t.co/mliG09Sevt" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/mliG09Sevt</a>— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) <a href="https://twitter.com/TechCharts/status/1758210793546322221?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">February 15, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 key Bitcoin price metrics point to new BTC all-time highs in 2024

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