HODL

Waves

Bitcoin

<div class="sg-post-des">
  Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Waves signal that the current bull market launch is a classic repeat of BTC price history. 
</div> 
<div class="cointelegraph"> 
 <p>The Bitcoin (BTC) metric that nailed the pit of the 2022 bear market says its uptrend is still intact.</p> 
 <p>In an X post on Aug. 22, creator of on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, shared some good news in the form of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL).</p> 
 <h2 id="analyst-new-money-flowing-into-bitcoin-in-2023">Analyst: "New money" flowing into Bitcoin in 2023</h2> 
 <p>While last week’s 10% BTC price dip has upended some of the on-chain landscape, RHODL is one of the metrics taking a longer-term view of what remains a timely bull market.</p> 
 <p>The metric takes existing HODL Waves data — which groups the BTC supply by when each coin, or specifically UTXO, last moved — and weights it by realized price, i.e. the price at which it last moved.</p> 
 <p>If this sounds complicated, the results have clear implications.</p> 
 <p>“Peaks in younger age bands highlight periods where they have a proportionally higher Realized Value weighting relative to the older Realized Value age bands,” Swift explains in an introduction on LookIntoBitcoin. </p> 
 <blockquote>
   “This is important to note as it indicates that the market is prepared to pay higher values for bitcoin today and in recent times, versus historical norms. This can be a good indicator that the market is becoming overheated.” 
 </blockquote> 
 <p>Currently, bands of coins which last moved three to six months ago are rising — a phenomenon common to the start of Bitcoin’s previous bull markets.</p> 
 <p>On the topic of the August drawdown on BTC/USD, Swift thus concluded that “the recent price dip is in the context of a much bigger bull trend.”</p> 
 <p>“3-6 month band trending up as new money comes back into the market = new bull <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="cycle" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/cycle.html">cycle</a>,” he summarized.</p> 
 <figure> 
  <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2023-08/325d4dfd-4bdd-4dda-8c01-3ffd72b621dd.jpeg"> 
  <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> <em>Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/X</em> 
  </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 <h2 id="charting-the-return-of-btc-price-euphoria">Charting the return of BTC price "euphoria"</h2> 
 <p>RHODL has an impressive record when it comes to BTC price phases.</p> 
 <p><strong><em>Related:&nbsp;Most fear since SVB collapse — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week</em></strong></p> 
 <p>In December 2022, when BTC/USD was circling its two-year lows of $15,600, Swift used the metric to call the end of “euphoria” among Bitcoin’s speculative investor cohort, which he labeled “tourists.”</p> 
 <p>He stated at the time that the market is likely now at <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="cycle" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/cycle.html">cycle</a> lows, which means maximum risk-reward opportunity.</p> 
 <figure> 
  <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2023-08/90b957cd-1715-47a3-9c3a-39ed3cb66a51.png"> 
  <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> <em>Realized Cap HODL Waves annotated chart from December 2022. Source: LookIntoBitcoin</em> 
  </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 <p>Beginning in January this year, Bitcoin began a new uptrend which delivered 70% <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="gains" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/gains.html">gains</a> in Q1 alone.</p> 
 <p>Since then, investor composition has changed, with short-term holders (STHs) — entities holding BTC for 155 days or less — reducing their overall exposure to their lowest since November 2021.</p> 
 <p>The latest dip nonetheless increased pressure on those remaining speculators, with almost 90% of STH coins now held at an unrealized loss.</p> 
 <p class="post-content__disclaimer">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. </p> 
 <template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook"></template> 
</div>

Bitcoin is in 'new bull cycle' — Metric that bottomed before 70% gains

Table of Contents

TheBitTimes

Other articles published on Aug 22, 2023

New Cryptocurrency Mining Center Launched in Oman!

BRICS Nations Downplay Common Currency Prospects Ahead of Summit

Ethereum dives: Vitalik Buterin sends 600 ETH to Coinbase

Why is Rally Coin Pumping? Investors Are Buzzing About RLY’s 17% Surge

Rumored XRP Listing on Robinhood: What It Could Mean for Crypto Investors

Unlocking Telepathic Communication: Will Wearable AI be a Reality?

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!