FOMC

Bitcoin

Rekt

<div class="sg-post-des">
 Bitcoin stays frustratingly quiet after the weekly close, but BTC price forecasts are giving ever-shorter breakout deadlines. 
</div> 
<div class="cointelegraph"> 
 Bitcoin (BTC) is painting a classic August picture as it starts the new week — volatility is nowhere to be seen. 
 In a continuation of some of the quietest BTC price action ever seen, the largest cryptocurrency remains locked in a narrow trading range below $30,000. 
 Whether it be long or short timeframes, Bitcoin is giving market observers cause for increasing frustration. Despite a tug-of-war between bulls and bears on exchanges, neither party seems able to set a new BTC <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="price" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/price.html">price</a> trend in motion. 
 Will the status quo remain this week? 
 With few macroeconomic triggers in store, catalysts for change will need to come from elsewhere. Whales are accumulating, data suggests, fueling an argument that Bitcoin is preparing its next major breakout phase in classic style. 
 A similar conclusion comes from some of the narrowest volatility recorded for Bitcoin courtesy of the Bollinger Bands metric, with current conditions rivalling September 2016 and January 2023. 
 By definition, it may simply be a matter of time before history repeats itself. 
 <h2 id="bitcoin-copycat-move-begins-new-rangebound-week">Bitcoin copycat move begins new rangebound week</h2> 
 The weekly close saw a modicum of volatility return to Bitcoin spot <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="price" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/price.html">price</a> performance, but just like last week, this was short lived. 
 Following the new weekly candle open, BTC/USD dipped to test $29,000 before returning to its previous position — one that still holds at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView&nbsp;shows. 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/6ee175f9376b67019a527df8c987ed87.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, noted the similarities while repeating his view that $29,700 is the level for bulls to reclaim. 
 Over the weekend, Van de Poppe described the lack of volatility overall as “extremely astonishing.” 
 “The classic dump on Sunday evening took place on Bitcoin,” he told X subscribers alongside a chart showing relevant areas of interest. 
 <blockquote>
 “Holding onto support, all good. Continue the range. Party starts above $29,700.” 
 </blockquote> 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/2c091b0bf34e2bde6b6d8a5c7644a29f.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades held a similar opinion on short-term movements, noting that even weekend conditions were trending toward unusually calm extremes. 
 “Dancing around the CME Close price as expected. It's been a long time since we've seen anything different,” he summarized. 
 <blockquote>
 “Volatility this time around was extremely low. Even for a weekend.” 
 </blockquote> 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/f2a2bd8750bff44b4433c3b073ae4da0.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 An accompanying chart put the CME Bitcoin futures closing price for the week prior at $29,465 as the focal point for the start of the week. 
 <h2 id="weekly-close-clinches-key-btc-pric-level">Weekly close clinches key BTC pric level</h2> 
 The weekly close itself nonetheless did manage to offer a glimmer of hope for those analyzing longer-term trends. 
 Bitcoin, by a hair, managed to close the weekly candle above $29,250 — a key level highlighted in recent weeks by popular trader and analyst, Rekt Capital. 
 In an X post just before the event, Rekt Capital referenced previous BTC price behavior after a close at $29,250 or higher. 
 “BTC upside wicked into the ~$30200 region, much like last week and in April 2023,” he noted. 
 <blockquote>
 “But if $BTC is able to Weekly Close above ~$29250, then that upside wick won't be as bearish.” 
 </blockquote> 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/d86e4d595bc0c1dfae4d0456c719e28d.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 Providing a potential headwind was relative strength index (RSI) data, which on 1-week timeframes continued to print a bearish divergence with price. 
 “Weekly Bearish Divergence for BTC will continue to remain intact unless the RSI is able to break its downtrend (green),” Rekt Capital commented about the phenomenon. 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/4e2f32d4edc20408b7a300795776dbbb.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> BTC/USD annotated chart with RSI. Source: Rekt Capital/X 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 Historical data gives little clue as to how BTC/USD might behave before the monthly close. 
 As Cointelegraph reported, August is a mixed bag when it comes to BTC price performance, and so far, Bitcoin has barely moved compared to the end of July. 
 Data from monitoring resource Coinglass shows that current gains of 0.6% mark Bitcoin’s quietest August month on record. 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/f40428ae005e49e09ecbd40bcbf9e31d.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 <h2 id="low-volatility-spurs-btc-price-breakout-predictions">Low volatility spurs BTC price breakout predictions</h2> 
 It is hard to avoid the topic of volatility — or lack of it — when analyzing the current state of Bitcoin. 
 Despite heavy press coverage, even outside the crypto realm, the near total absence of snap price moves has been the defining characteristic of BTC price action for much of Q2. 
 The latest data lays bare just how static the landscape has become — and what should come afterward. 
 The Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) currently measures 9.57 on weekly timeframes, rapidly retracing to all-time lows from the start of this year. 
 What happened when Bitcoin broke out from a downtrend in January is no secret, with its Q1 upside totalling 70%. 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/4cfb7650178c85fcd1e2bf7236ea7ac1.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) 1-week chart. Source: TradingView 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 “The volatility on Bitcoin is getting lower and lower,” Van de Poppe thus stated. 
 <blockquote>
 “A matter of 1-2 weeks before we'll be having a big move on the markets.” 
 </blockquote> 
 Similar findings come from the Bollinger bands volatility indicator, now also repeating behavior from the start of 2023. 
 Bollinger bands narrowing preclude a <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="price" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/price.html">price</a> <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="breakout" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/breakout.html">breakout</a>, and while unknown whether this would be up or down, the extent of <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="price" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/price.html">price</a> compression has market participants preparing for dramatic change. 
 “The spread between the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin is just 2.9% and is as tight as it has ever been,” Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, wrote in part of an X post on Aug. 14. 
 Checkmate revealed that Bitcoin had printed tighter Bollinger bands just twice in its history — in September 2016 and January 2023. 
 “Wild stuff,” he concluded. 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/8eacad32309dbe520244babff7442c1c.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Range annotated chart. Source: Checkmate/X 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 <h2 id="whale-reaccumulation-narrative-strengthens">Whale "reaccumulation" narrative strengthens</h2> 
 Previously, Cointelegraph reported on interesting shifts among Bitcoin whales underneath stale BTC price action. 
 This is continuing, analysis shows, and what looks like accumulation is becoming an ever-larger talking point for those seeking signs of the bull market returning. 
 “In the past two weeks, about 10 Bitcoin whales, each holding at least 1,000 $BTC (worth a minimum of $29.4 million), have joined the network!” popular trader Ali noted at the weekend. 
 Glassnode data puts the total number of addresses with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC at 2,015 as of Aug. 13 — up from 2,005 on Aug. 1. 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/9d4c0abdf64149fbf3d6e5f88462a05b.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> Bitcoin Number of Addresses with Balance over 1,000 BTC chart. Source: Glassnode 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, flagged the emergence of new whales on major exchange Bitfinex as proof that “something is brewing under the surface.” 
 <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 And #Bitmex whales have joined the party. During the last night, I've got 3 notifications from massive new long positions Something is brewing under the surface https://t.co/EFLYZCMFyV https://t.co/TDY0uEis6c pic.twitter.com/4Y29U8tTtj— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) August 13, 2023 
 </blockquote> 
 “Strong start off the cycle bottom, now in re-accumulation mode,” on-chain and cycle analyst Root continued, pointing to realized price figures. 
 Bitcoin’s realized price refers to the aggregate price at which the BTC supply last moved. 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/21b134ab5efcbe314ec7ded385229d92.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> Bitcoin realized price chart. Source: Root/X 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 <h2 id="fed-fomc-minutes-lead-cool-macro-week">Fed FOMC minutes lead cool macro week</h2> 
 Crypto markets are in for a relatively quiet macroeconomic data period, in line with the summer lull. 
 Related:&nbsp;Bitcoin’s sideways <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="price" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/price.html">price</a> action leads traders to focus on SHIB, UNI, MKR and XDC 
 This week, while “big” for U.S. consumer data, has Federal Reserve minutes as its main highlight. 
 <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 Key Events This Week: 1. July Retail Sales data - Tuesday 2. Building Permits data - Wednesday 3. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday 4. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday 5. Philly Fed PMI data - Thursday 6. Retail earnings including $WMT $TGT $HD Big week for consumer data.— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 13, 2023 
 </blockquote> 
 Those minutes will show the attitudes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members toward interest rate policy as they were when rates were hiked last month. 
 Risk asset traders continue to look toward the September FOMC meeting for a potential rate hike pause — something which should benefit crypto as well. 
 According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of that happening stand at almost 90%, with the meeting still over a month away. 
 <figure> 
 <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/14/6e3458539e9fdb14066f74b431003f0f.webp"> 
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group 
 </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 Any knee-jerk BTC price reaction to this week’s data printouts, meanwhile, arguably looks unlikely — last week’s more significant releases failed to move markets. 
 Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money? 
 This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. 
 <template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook"></template> 
</div>

BTC price breakout by end of August? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Table of Contents

TheBitTimes

Other articles published on Aug 14, 2023

ATOM Price Prediction: Is It The Time For Buyers To Take Charge?

Ripple News: XRP Price Forms Golden Cross: Is ATH on Cards?

SEC Considers Approving Bitcoin ETFs from Top Firms

Affyn Partners with Grand Prix Season Singapore 2023 to Unveil Cutting-Edge Web 3.0 Event

Bitcoin and Ethereum trade flat as meme coins gain traction

Coinbase Loses 'XRP Pump' Gains

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!