Deep Dive
1. Post-Hype Profit-Taking (Bearish Impact)
Overview: The token’s social media buzz peaked in early December with endorsements from People’s Daily and viral dance challenges, driving a 6645% 90-day rally. However, no major new partnerships or events have emerged since December 9.
What this means: Early buyers likely sold positions to lock in gains, amplified by the token’s high volatility (30-day beta vs. BTC: ~3.2x). With 100% circulating supply unlocked, sell pressure faces minimal friction.
What to look out for: Sustained trading volume below $2M/day could signal fading retail interest.
2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)
Overview: The MACD histogram flipped to -0.000189 on December 13, indicating bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 7-day SMA ($0.0073) crossed below the 30-day SMA ($0.0052), a classic "death cross" pattern.
What this means: Traders often interpret these signals as confirmation of a downtrend, triggering stop-loss orders. The token now tests Fibonacci support at $0.0062 (61.8% retracement from its November high). A close below this level could target $0.0050.
3. Risk-Off Crypto Sentiment (Mixed Impact)
Overview: The broader crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 27/100 (“Fear”), while Bitcoin dominance holds at 58.55% – conditions that typically hurt speculative altcoins.
What this means: Meme coins underperform in risk-averse environments due to their lack of fundamentals. However, Vulgar Penguin’s 24h volume ($2.75M) remains 40% of its market cap, suggesting lingering trader interest.
Conclusion
The decline reflects natural cooling after an explosive rally, compounded by technical triggers and cautious market conditions. While the project’s cultural relevance in China provides narrative support, meme coins often struggle to sustain parabolic gains without continuous viral catalysts.
Key watch: Can the token hold the $0.0062 Fibonacci support, or will profit-taking push it toward the next psychological level at $0.005?