Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks: Supply Shock Ahead (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
A cliff unlock of 175M USUAL tokens (18.87% of circulating supply) is scheduled for November 10–17, 2025, valued at ~$5.99M. Historically, large unlocks often lead to short-term sell pressure as early investors and teams cash out.

What this means:
The sudden supply increase could exacerbate USUAL’s existing downtrend (-50.82% over 60 days). Tokens with similar unlock magnitudes (e.g., LINEA’s 16.44% unlock) saw 15–20% price declines post-event. Watch order book depth around $0.024–$0.025 (near the Fibonacci swing low) for potential support.

2. Protocol Upgrades & Tokenomics (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Q3 2025 updates include:
- Buyback Logic: DAO-driven repurchases when USUAL trades below discounted cash flow value.
- Lock-for-Boost: Stakers locking tokens longer receive higher revenue shares (30% of fees distributed weekly).
- ETH0++ Launch: Collateral expansion to ETH, enabling yield compounding via liquid staking derivatives.

What this means:
These mechanics could create structural demand: buybacks reduce sell-side pressure, while locked staking (55% of staked USUAL is already locked) limits liquid supply. If the protocol hits its $27M annual revenue target (Usual Blog), the 70% buyback allocation could absorb ~$19M/year of tokens at current prices.

3. Market Sentiment & Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
- Macro: The crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 25 (“Fear”), with Bitcoin dominance at 58.67% – historically unfavorable for altcoins.
- Sector Risk: RWA stablecoins face regulatory scrutiny under the GENIUS Act (CoinEx), requiring 1:1 reserves and compliance audits.

What this means:
USUAL’s bearish technicals (price below 200-day SMA of $0.0651) align with broader risk-off sentiment. However, its revenue-sharing model ranks in DeFi’s top 10 for holder distributions (CoinLaunch Report), offering relative resilience if the RWA sector weathers regulatory storms.

Conclusion

USUAL’s trajectory hinges on whether buybacks and synthetic asset adoption can offset unlock-driven selling and macro headwinds. The $0.024–0.025 zone is critical technical support; a breakdown could see capitulation to 2025 lows. For sustained recovery, monitor weekly staking metrics and ETH0’s TVL growth post-launch. Can USUAL’s “DeFi BlackRock” narrative attract enough institutional liquidity to defy the altcoin winter?