Latest Toshi (TOSHI) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Market Sentiment Drag (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The crypto market cap fell 3.84% in 24h (5 Dec 2025), with Bitcoin dominance rising to 58.43% as investors flee riskier altcoins. TOSHI’s 24h volume dropped 11.86% to $15M, signaling weakening demand.
What this means: Meme coins like TOSHI are often first sold during fear cycles. The Altcoin Season Index (22/100) confirms capital rotation to Bitcoin, pressuring high-beta assets.

2. Technical Support Failure (Bearish Impact)

Overview: TOSHI broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.00038725), with RSI14 at 42.17 (neutral but trending downward). The 30-day SMA ($0.00043885) now acts as resistance.
What this means: Breakdowns below key Fibonacci levels often trigger algorithmic selling. The next support sits at the yearly low near $0.0003376.

3. Post-Listing Volatility (Mixed Impact)

Overview: TOSHI’s November 2025 Coinone KRW listing and October OKX listing initially boosted prices, but recent 30-day losses (-30.6%) suggest profit-taking.
What this means: Exchange listings often create “buy rumor, sell news” cycles. With major CEX exposure already achieved (Coinone), short-term catalysts appear exhausted.

Conclusion

TOSHI’s drop reflects crypto-wide risk aversion, technical breakdowns, and fading hype from recent exchange listings. While its long-term utility focus (Toshi Mart, NFTs) offers potential, current sentiment favors caution.

Key watch: Can TOSHI hold the $0.0003376 yearly low, or will Bitcoin’s dominance streak trigger deeper altcoin capitulation?

Deep Dive

1. Coinone KRW Listing (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Toshi was listed on South Korea’s Coinone exchange for direct KRW trading on November 12, 2025. This eliminates conversion fees for Korean investors and simplifies access, historically a precursor to liquidity spikes for altcoins.

What this means:
- Direct KRW pairs often attract retail traders, who drove 40% of TOSHI’s volume during past exchange listings (Coinone).
- Reduced friction could stabilize buy-side demand, though profit-taking risks remain given TOSHI’s -47.62% 60-day decline.

What to look out for: Sustained volume on Coinone’s TOSHI/KRW pair (target: >$2M daily).

2. Technical Rebound Signals (Mixed Impact)

Overview: TOSHI’s price ($0.000420) crossed above its 7-day SMA ($0.000414) and EMA ($0.000406), while the MACD histogram turned positive for the first time since late November.

What this means:
- Short-term momentum favors bulls, but the 30-day SMA ($0.000448) looms as resistance.
- RSI (43.58) suggests room for upward movement before overbought conditions.

Key level to watch: A close above $0.00045 could signal a trend reversal; failure may retest support at $0.00040.

3. Community-Led Speculation (Bullish Risk)

Overview: Social media activity surged around TOSHI’s ecosystem developments, including Toshi Mobile (a privacy-focused Web3 mobile initiative) and meme-driven campaigns like #ToshiToTheMoon.

What this means:
- Meme coins often rally on narrative shifts, and TOSHI’s ties to Base blockchain’s growth (via Coinbase) amplify speculative interest.
- However, exchange balances of TOSHI remain high (~111B tokens), indicating potential sell pressure if sentiment sours.

Conclusion

Toshi’s 24h gain stems from improved KRW liquidity, technical rebounds, and meme-driven speculation. While short-term momentum favors bulls, the token’s high volatility and concentrated supply (420.69B total) warrant caution.

Key watch: Can TOSHI hold above its 7-day SMA ($0.000414) amid rising global crypto fear sentiment (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 22)?