Latest Toshi (TOSHI) Price Analysis

By CMC AI
28 December 2025 03:43PM (UTC+0)

TLDR

Toshi (TOSHI) rose 7.63% over the last 24h, diverging from its 30-day downtrend (-29.47%) and a broader crypto market in "Fear" territory. Key drivers:

  1. Fresh-Wallet Accumulation – 31.7% of supply held by new wallets ($52M+), tightening sell pressure.

  2. Technical Rebound Signals – RSI near oversold levels, price reclaiming key moving averages.

  3. Community-Driven Hype – Social media buzz around accumulation and speculative positioning.


Deep Dive

1. Fresh-Wallet Accumulation (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Fresh wallets now hold 133.56B TOSHI ($52.36M), per Evening Trader Group. This occurred during a consolidation phase, with exchange balances declining, signaling reduced liquid supply.

What this means:
New entrants absorbing supply can stabilize prices and set the stage for rallies. Whale activity between $0.000043–0.000045 (vs. current $0.000316) suggests accumulation at lower levels, aligning with recent price recovery.

What to look out for:
Sustained exchange outflow trends and whale wallet movements for confirmation of long-term holding.


2. Technical Rebound Setup (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
TOSHI’s price ($0.000316) sits above its 7-day SMA ($0.000305) and EMA ($0.000306), hinting at short-term bullish momentum. However, the MACD histogram remains negative (-0.00000148), signaling lingering bearish pressure.

What this means:
The RSI (32.71) nears oversold territory, historically a buy signal for meme coins. A break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ($0.000391) could target $0.000418 (23.6% level). Failure to hold $0.000305 risks retesting $0.000278 (swing low).

Key threshold:
Watch $0.000369 (50% Fib level) for bullish confirmation.


3. Social Sentiment & Speculation (Bullish Risk)

Overview:
TOSHI’s community-driven narrative intensified, with influencers like TrollBit amplifying speculative interest. Social volume spiked alongside the price rise.

What this means:
Meme coins thrive on hype, and renewed attention can trigger short squeezes. However, the 24h volume surged 162% to $36.1M, suggesting retail FOMO.

Risk:
Leveraged positions on Binance Futures (noted in recent alerts) could amplify volatility.


Conclusion

TOSHI’s rebound reflects supply tightening, technical oversold conditions, and meme-driven speculation. While accumulation by new wallets reduces immediate sell-side risk, sustainability hinges on broader market sentiment and Bitcoin’s stability.

Key watch: Can TOSHI hold above $0.000369 (50% Fib) to confirm a trend reversal, or will profit-taking resume amid lingering bearish MACD signals?

CMC AI can make mistakes. Not financial advice.