Suilend (SEND) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Yield Strategy Adoption (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Suilend’s “Strategies” product – enabling automated leveraged yield farming – attracted $27M deposits within two weeks of its August 2025 launch. The feature simplifies complex DeFi loops (e.g., staking SUI → borrowing against sSUI → restaking), amplifying yields from 5% to 30%+ APY.

What this means:
Higher TVL directly increases protocol revenue (0.1-0.3% fees), 50% of which funds SEND buybacks. With $2.7M already repurchased (3% of supply), continued adoption could tighten circulating supply. However, over-leveraged positions risk liquidations if SUI price swings exceed 20% (EvaCmore).

2. Sui Ecosystem Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Sui’s DeFi TVL hit $2.6B in October 2025 (+37% MoM), with Suilend ($745M TVL) narrowly leading rival NAVI ($723M). While SUI’s developer growth (+54% YoY) supports innovation, Suilend’s 20% APR advantage relies on retaining liquidity against NAVI’s steadier growth.

What this means:
SEND benefits from Sui’s broader adoption (e.g., Trump-linked USD1 stablecoin, EVE Gaming migration). However, TVL could fragment if NAVI captures more market share, diluting fee revenue. The 24-hour SEND/SUI correlation of 0.87 means ecosystem momentum remains critical (The Defiant).

3. Risk Events & Buyback Sustainability (Neutral Impact)

Overview:
Suilend faced a $379k bad debt event in September 2025 after suspending IKA loans during a 700% price spike. While the Elixir team repaid a $93M exposure in November, recurring security concerns (e.g., Cetus hacker collateralizing $10M SUI) test investor confidence.

What this means:
Active risk management (e.g., isolated markets, 0% LTV for volatile assets) mitigates downside, but protocol exploits could trigger sell-offs. Buybacks ($9.1M treasury balance) provide price support, but depend on sustaining 20%+ TVL growth – challenging if crypto fear sentiment persists (Binance News).

Conclusion

SEND’s price hinges on balancing Sui’s DeFi expansion against leverage risks and competitor traction. Near-term, watch whether Strategies’ deposits surpass $50M by January 2026 and Sui’s dominance in Layer 1 developer activity. Can Suilend maintain its 20% TVL lead over NAVI while managing cascading liquidation risks?