Latest Solayer (LAYER) Price Analysis

Deep Dive

1. Upbit Hack Fallout (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Upbit, South Korea’s largest exchange, suffered a $36M Solana-network hack on Nov 27. While user funds were insured, the exchange froze $8.18M in LAYER tokens on-chain and halted withdrawals until Dec 1.

What this means:
- Upbit handles ~70% of South Korea’s crypto volume. The freeze created localized selling pressure as traders shifted to liquid assets.
- Reduced arbitrage activity temporarily inflated LAYER’s price on Upbit vs global markets. Post-reopening, prices normalized downward.

What to watch: Upbit’s full resumption of LAYER withdrawals (ongoing since Dec 1) and any further security updates.

2. Altcoin Liquidity Drain (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin’s dominance hit 58.8% this week as investors fled to safety amid a "Fear" market sentiment (index: 22). Altcoins collectively lost 2.3% in 24h.

What this means:
- LAYER’s $62M market cap makes it vulnerable to liquidity shifts. Trading volume only covers 18.6% of its market cap (low turnover ratio).
- Derivatives data shows rising open interest in BTC (+11% 24h) vs stagnant altcoin activity, confirming risk-off positioning.

3. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Impact)

Overview: LAYER broke below its 7-day SMA ($0.2049) and 30-day SMA ($0.2219), with RSI at 41.8 signaling bearish momentum.

What this means:
- The 200-day EMA at $0.5837 remains distant resistance. Bulls need a close above $0.2049 to reverse the downtrend.
- On-chain Fibonacci levels suggest next support near $0.184 (swing low from Nov 27).

Conclusion

LAYER’s drop reflects post-hack jitters in its core Korean market and sector-wide altcoin weakness. While the project’s fundamentals (modular rollups, Solana integration) remain intact, recovery hinges on Upbit fully restoring confidence and Bitcoin’s dominance easing.

Key watch: Can LAYER hold the $0.184 support? A break below could retest May 2025 lows ($0.17).

Deep Dive

1. Upbit Hack Impact (Bearish)

Overview: South Korea’s Upbit exchange suffered a $36M Solana-network exploit on November 27, 2025, affecting LAYER and other tokens. Upbit froze ~12B won ($8–9M) in LAYER on-chain to mitigate losses (Bitcoinist).

What this means:
- The hack disrupted LAYER liquidity, as Upbit handles ~80% of South Korea’s crypto volume.
- Traders likely dumped LAYER due to fears of prolonged withdrawal freezes or further security issues.

Key watch: Resumption of LAYER deposits/withdrawals on Upbit, currently halted pending security audits.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish)

Overview: LAYER broke below its 7-day SMA ($0.215) and Fibonacci 23.6% retracement ($0.312), accelerating selling pressure.

What this means:
- MACD histogram: Turned positive (+0.0007669) but remains below the signal line, signaling weak momentum.
- RSI-14: At 47.85 (neutral), but failure to hold $0.21 support risks a retest of the 2025 low ($0.184).

Key watch: A sustained close above $0.215 could stabilize prices, while a drop below $0.184 may trigger panic selling.

3. Macro Sentiment Drag (Bearish)

Overview: Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 27 (“Fear”), with Bitcoin dominance rising to 58.69%, pressuring altcoins.

What this means:
- Investors rotated into Bitcoin amid market uncertainty, starving alts like LAYER of liquidity.
- LAYER’s 24h volume surged 75% to $84.6M, suggesting capitulation rather than accumulation.

Conclusion

LAYER’s decline reflects a perfect storm of exchange-driven liquidity shocks, technical breakdowns, and risk-off sentiment. While the protocol’s long-term fundamentals (e.g., InfiniSVM scalability) remain intact, short-term recovery hinges on Upbit resuming operations and broader market stabilization.

Key watch: Upbit’s post-audit announcement and Bitcoin’s price action – a BTC rebound could lift oversold alts like LAYER.