Radiant Capital (RDNT) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Security Upgrades & Remediation (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Radiant plans Q3/Q4 2025 payouts to users affected by the October 2024 $53M hack, alongside deploying the Guardian Fund – a protocol-backed insurance pool. These steps aim to rebuild credibility after two major 2024 exploits (CoinJournal).

What this means: Successful compensation could stabilize user retention (critical for lending/borrowing activity), but lingering trust issues may cap adoption. The 86% price drop since late 2024 reflects persistent skepticism.

2. DeFi Sector Volatility (Bearish Risk)

Overview: Radiant’s TVL and RDNT demand correlate with Ethereum’s price (58% of borrows are ETH-linked) and broader DeFi liquidity. With crypto fear/greed at 24 (Extreme Fear) and altcoin season index at 20 (Bitcoin dominance), capital rotation away from riskier DeFi tokens could deepen.

What this means: ETH’s -23% monthly drop (vs. BTC’s -4.5%) pressures Radiant’s core markets. A break below $3,500 ETH might trigger cascading RDNT liquidations.

3. Exploiter’s $94M ETH Holdings (Bearish Catalyst)

Overview: The Radiant hacker holds 14,436 ETH ($94M) from the 2024 breach. Recent DAI conversions ($43.9M sold in August 2025) suggest gradual profit-taking (Coinspeaker).

What this means: Large ETH dumps could suppress prices, indirectly hurting Radiant’s collateral ratios and RDNT utility. North Korea-linked attribution complicates asset recovery.

Conclusion

RDNT’s path hinges on executing security fixes amid hostile macro conditions. Watch Q3 remediation payouts and ETH’s $4,100 support – a breach there may signal deeper DeFi stress. Can Radiant’s Guardian Fund mechanics offset systemic risks before V3 launches?