Deep Dive
1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)
Overview: PIPE’s 7-day RSI hit 3.65, its lowest since launch, indicating extreme oversold conditions. However, the MACD histogram (-0.00347) and EMA/SMA crossunders (30-day EMA at $0.058 vs. current $0.0296) confirm sustained bearish pressure.
What this means: While oversold metrics often precede bounces, PIPE’s lack of bullish divergence (RSI and price both falling) suggests capitulation, not reversal. The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement at $0.058 now acts as resistance.
What to watch: A close above $0.031 (pivot point) could signal short-term relief, but failure to hold $0.029 (Oct 2025 low) risks cascading liquidations.
2. Ecosystem Headwinds (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Despite Solana’s successful defense against a 6 Tbps DDoS attack in December 2025 – where Pipe Network’s CEO David Rhodus highlighted Solana’s resilience – PIPE hasn’t benefited.
What this means: PIPE’s CDN utility on Solana hasn’t translated to demand for the token. The mainnet launch in October 2025 saw PIPE drop 32% amid debates over node rewards, setting a precedent for weak token-network value correlation.
3. Liquidity Dynamics (Bearish Impact)
Overview: PIPE’s 24h volume fell 19% to $1.33M, with turnover (volume/market cap) at 0.45 – below the 1.0 threshold for healthy liquidity.
What this means: Thin order books allow minor sell orders to disproportionately impact price. The 90-day decline (-76%) reflects fading speculative interest, with no major exchange listings since Kraken EU in October 2025.
Conclusion
PIPE’s slide combines technical exhaustion, weak utility-driven demand, and liquidity decay. While oversold conditions could spark a dead-cat bounce, the lack of fresh catalysts (e.g., partnerships, staking upgrades) limits upside.
Key watch: Monitor the $0.029 support – a breach could trigger algorithmic sell orders. For sustained recovery, PIPE needs measurable adoption (e.g., rising node count or burned tokens).