Deep Dive
1. Exchange Support Erosion (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
Bitget delisted INIT’s On-chain Earn product on Jan 13, 2026, following Binance’s Nov 2025 removal of INIT/BNB trading. These moves reduce accessibility and passive income options for holders.
What this means:
Delistings typically trigger sell-offs as liquidity fragments and investor confidence wanes. The 51% drop in 24h trading volume (to $6.6M) confirms reduced market participation.
What to watch:
Whether other platforms like Upbit (which previously suspended INIT deposits) follow with further restrictions.
2. Technical Downtrend Confirmed (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
INIT trades below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.0922, 30-day SMA: $0.0911), with the MACD histogram barely positive (+0.000023) and RSI at 42.21 (neutral but declining).
What this means:
The 200-day SMA sits 66% above current prices ($0.2499 vs $0.0854), indicating long-term holders face heavy losses. Fibonacci levels suggest next support near $0.0812 (2025 low).
Key level:
A close below $0.0812 could trigger algorithmic sell orders, potentially extending the 90-day decline (-49%).
3. Ecosystem Momentum Stalls (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
While Initia completed its Reactor Upgrade in Dec 2025 (faster blocks, improved interoperability), network activity remains muted. Critics highlight stagnant TVL and fierce L1 competition.
What this means:
Positive tech updates are being overshadowed by market skepticism. Social sentiment data shows growing doubts about Initia’s ability to differentiate vs chains like Optimism/Celestia.
What to watch:
Q1 2026 developer migration stats and whether VIP rewards programs can boost staking participation.
Conclusion
INIT’s decline reflects a toxic mix of reduced exchange support, weak technical structure, and existential doubts about its niche in the modular blockchain race. While the project continues shipping upgrades, market participants appear to be pricing in long-term viability risks.
Key watch: INIT’s ability to hold the $0.0812 support level – a breakdown here could accelerate losses given the token’s thin liquidity (turnover ratio: 0.43).