Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Competitive Pressures (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Hyperliquid’s dominance in on-chain perpetuals dropped from 70% to 8% in 2025 as Aster (backed by Binance’s CZ) and Lighter captured volume via memecoin liquidity rotations. Daily volumes on Hyperliquid fell to $6.4B vs. Aster’s $270B (Coincu).
What this means: Market fragmentation threatens fee revenue (97% of which funds HYPE buybacks). Without recapturing volume, HYPE’s $8.3B valuation risks downward repricing akin to 2025’s -38% quarterly drop.

2. Whale Accumulation vs. Unlocks (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Whales bought $12.1M HYPE in 14 days (Dec 2025), but $11.9B in team tokens begin vesting in 2026, creating sell pressure (Maelstrom).
What this means: Short-term, whale bids may stabilize prices near $24 support. Long-term, 23.8% supply unlocks could overwhelm buybacks if sentiment sours, mirroring 2025’s -35% decline post-unlock rumors.

3. Tokenomics & Governance (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview: A Dec 2025 validator vote proposes excluding 37M HYPE ($1B) in the non-spendable Assistance Fund from circulating supply, effectively reducing sellable tokens by 10% (Cointribune).
What this means: If passed, this could mimic stock buyback effects, boosting scarcity. Combined with current 97% fee-to-buybacks, it may counter bearish macro trends – critical as HYPE trades 61% below its ATH.

Conclusion

HYPE’s path hinges on balancing supply shocks (bullish) against existential threats from leaner rivals (bearish). Watch the HIP-3 adoption rate (permissionless markets) – success here could reignite fee growth and validate its $8B+ valuation. Will Hyperliquid’s tokenomics outmuscle its shrinking moat?