Deep Dive
1. Bitwise ETF Bid (31 Dec 2025)
Overview:
Bitwise filed for 11 single-asset crypto ETFs targeting HYPE, AAVE, UNI, and others. Each ETF would hold up to 60% direct tokens and 40% derivatives. While Solana/XRP ETFs saw $1B+ inflows in 2025, their underlying assets underperformed post-launch (SOL -36% since October). Analysts warn of market saturation risk (AMBCrypto).
What this means:
This is neutral-to-bullish for HYPE. Approval could unlock institutional demand, but historical ETF-performance disconnects suggest cautious optimism. Watch SEC feedback by March 2026 and HYPE’s inclusion weighting.
2. Token Unlock Scrutiny (31 Dec 2025)
Overview:
12.4M HYPE ($251M) unlocks on January 6 for core contributors, part of a monthly vesting schedule. Previous unlocks saw partial restaking rather than immediate selling. HYPE is up 7% weekly despite the overhang, outperforming DOGE (-5%) and ASTER (-53%) (Bitcoinist).
What this means:
This is bearish short-term due to sentiment risk, but Hyperliquid’s revenue-reinvestment mechanism (99% fees for buybacks) may offset selling. Monitor on-chain wallets post-unlock for distribution patterns.
3. $1B Token Burn Finalized (24 Dec 2025)
Overview:
Hyperliquid validators approved burning 37M HYPE (~13% of supply) from its Assistance Fund, permanently removing $1B worth of tokens. The burn aims to counter inflation from unlocks and boost deflationary pressure amid rising competition (CRSystemsLog).
What this means:
This is structurally bullish, reducing sellable supply by 15% and aligning with Hyperliquid’s aggressive buyback strategy (97% of fees used for HYPE repurchases).
Conclusion
Hyperliquid balances institutional tailwinds (ETF potential) with tokenomics adjustments (burns/unlocks) as perpetual DEX competition intensifies. While the Bitwise filing signals mainstream recognition, HYPE’s 30-day price (-15.4%) reflects broader altcoin weakness. Will March’s ETF decisions validate its $8.8B valuation, or will unlock anxiety dominate? Track HYPE’s turnover ratio (0.019) for liquidity stress signals.