Euler (EUL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Incentives & Unlocks (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
Euler’s reward system shows 12 scheduled rEUL (reward EUL) unlocks between December 2025 and February 2026, totaling ~72 rEUL. These rewards are tied to liquidity provisions and governance participation. Historically, such unlocks have led to sell pressure when participants claim and liquidate tokens.

What this means:
The staggered unlocks (e.g., 22.01 rEUL on Jan 3, 2026) risk diluting demand unless offset by new staking mechanisms or buybacks. With EUL already down 62% over 60 days (CoinMarketCap), sustained selling could extend bearish momentum.

2. DeFi Regulation & Risk Perception (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
November 2025’s $285M Stream Finance collapse (Weex) intensified scrutiny on permissionless lending protocols like Euler. Regulators are pushing for mandatory identity checks and capital requirements for DeFi risk managers.

What this means:
While Euler’s isolated markets (e.g., Linea ETH vaults) limit contagion risks, broader regulatory crackdowns could reduce institutional participation. Conversely, compliance improvements might position Euler as a “safer” DeFi lender, attracting cautious capital.

3. Product Growth & Partnerships (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
Euler’s August 2025 launch on Coinbase improved accessibility, while integrations with Pendle and Linea’s ETH markets (Euler Finance) expanded its institutional footprint. The Q3 2025 TVL surged 33% to $1.5B, per OAK Research.

What this means:
Continued adoption of EulerSwap’s hybrid DEX-lending model and FeeFlow auctions (converting protocol fees to EUL buybacks) could offset bearish tokenomics. Partnerships like BlackRock’s sBUIDL integration signal credibility, potentially reversing the 57% 90-day price decline.

Conclusion

Euler’s price trajectory hinges on balancing incentive-driven sell pressure against product-led demand. While regulatory headwinds and unlocks pose near-term risks, protocol upgrades and institutional adoption could catalyze a rebound. Monitor EUL’s FeeFlow burn rate and Q1 2026 unlock patterns for directional cues. Can EulerSwap’s capital efficiency outpace DeFi’s accountability crisis?