Deep Dive
1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
Allo broke below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.00391) on December 15, triggering automated sell orders. Its 14-day RSI (30.41) shows oversold conditions but lacks bullish divergence.
What this means:
The breakdown invalidated a potential recovery scenario, with bears now targeting the swing low of $0.00294. Thin liquidity (24h volume: $1.14M) exacerbates downside moves, as seen in the 31% volume spike during the drop.
What to look out for:
A close above $0.00321 (7-day SMA) could signal short-term relief.
2. RWA Sector Credibility Concerns (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Polygon Labs’ Aishwary Gupta criticized inflated RWA metrics on November 3, highlighting projects with unverified tokenized assets. While Allo wasn’t named, sector-wide FUD has persisted.
What this means:
Investors are scrutinizing RWA fundamentals more closely. Allo’s $53M TVL in alloBTC provides some legitimacy, but broader skepticism about tokenized asset transparency weighs on sentiment.
3. Macro Market Drag (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
The total crypto market cap fell 2.34% amid risk-off sentiment (Fear & Greed Index: 21). Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.47%, signaling capital rotation away from alts like RWA.
What this means:
Allo’s 90-day correlation with BTC strengthened to 0.82, leaving it vulnerable to broader market swings. Derivatives data shows perpetuals funding rates turned negative (-0.0039%), indicating bearish leverage.
Conclusion
Allo’s drop reflects technical triggers, sector-specific skepticism, and macro headwinds. While its Bitcoin-backed TVL offers a defensive angle, the token remains at mercy of thin markets and RWA narrative fragility.
Key watch: Can Allo hold the $0.00294 swing low, or will a breakdown intensify selling toward its all-time low of $0.00152 (November 2025)?