Bitcoin pumps as inflation cools

June inflation cooled to 3.5% against a 3.8% forecast, and $BTC jumped more than 2% in response. The print landed just 90 minutes before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony, with markets pricing a 40–50% chance of a July hike — up from 10% a week earlier — after the Hormuz blockade pushed oil back above $87.

The dominant read on the page is cautiously bullish. As The Crypto Brief details, cooler inflation raises the odds of Fed rate cuts, weakening the dollar and improving the liquidity conditions that favor risk assets — though one print doesn't guarantee a bull market. A similar case comes from King Ishmael, who tracks $BTC up 2.24% on renewed momentum, while cautioning that buying volume still needs to confirm a real trend reversal.

The pushback is sharper. To ren crypto, AI bubble risks, stretched equity valuations and geopolitical tensions could still spark a broad risk-off move. And as Ekon notes, Warsh told Congress the Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation — with forward guidance gone, every hearing becomes a repricing event. So what carries more weight into the July meeting — a backward-looking CPI or a barrel of oil?

Bitcoin

June CPI came in cooler than expected and Bitcoin jumped 2%. Rate hike fears fading. Can the Fed wake up the bulls?

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PlanB: "the BEST buying opportunity" 🚨

Bitcoin bulls see a move no one expects

$BTC printed a three-week high near $65K after June's CPI fell 0.4%, the biggest drop since 2020 — torching nearly half a billion in shorts and flipping ETF flows back to green. The bounce revives the bigger question: was October's $126K peak the cycle top, or only a local high? With Bitcoin retesting its 200-week moving average — a zone PlanB calls the market's best buying opportunity — bulls sense a move few expect.

The bull case is structural. As DeFi Planet details, $BTC holds above its long-term averages while exchange balances shrink and long-term holders accumulate, with ETF demand absorbing supply — though a 5x would need liquidity and institutions aligned for years. The same hinge appears in CoinCompass's framing: bulls cite ETFs and post-halving expansion, bears cite Bitcoin's maturity, and liquidity decides who wins.

The pushback comes from AnaLytic crypto, who expects a red July: a hawkish Fed under Warsh, $15B drained from stablecoin liquidity, and risks from Hormuz to Japan's carry trade — with a true bottom near $40K, below realized price, since no capitulation has hit yet. So which is it: the best buying zone in years, or a relief rally inside a bear market?

Bitcoin touched the 200-week MA and PlanB calls it the best buying zone in history. Can this cycle still 5x from here?

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Bitcoin fork support falls below 1%

Bitcoin heads into August with two fork events on deck — BIP-110's mandatory signaling window and the eCash hard fork at block 964,000 — yet miner support for BIP-110 has never topped 1%, with top pools refusing to signal. With almost no hashrate behind it, the fork poses little threat to the main chain — a wide gap between headline fear and network reality.

The calm case dominates the page. As Bibek Raj details, the August 21 split simply copies the chain — every $BTC holder gets an identical 1:1 balance on the new network while original coins stay untouched. The same logic anchors CLYTHERONIX's take: a fork needs miners, developers, exchanges and users, and until those align, the original network stays dominant. To CoinCompass, the real danger isn't the split but the scams around it — fake airdrops and phishing sites hunting holders.

A broader angle comes from ren crypto, who ties $BTC's next move to liquidity rotating out of a cracking AI trade — while flagging that reliance on aggressive buyers like Saylor adds concentration risk. If the fork fizzles as miners suggest, will August pass as a non-event, or is complacency exactly what scammers are counting on?

Bitcoin's BIP-110 fork is weeks away, yet miner support sits below 1%. What happens to your BTC if the chain splits?

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