SatoshiMacro

$BTC | MVRV Z-Score is the most-cited BTC valuation indicator since 2018. Awe and Wonder's formula: Z = (MarketCap - RealizedCap) / stddev(MarketCap, expanding window). It measures how stretched aggregate cost basis is versus current market value. Above 7 historically marks cycle euphoria; below 0 marks accumulation territory.

Documented BTC cycle inflections on the Glassnode/CoinMetrics implementation.

Tops:

- 2013-12: 9.3

- 2017-12: 11.5

- 2021-04: 6.3

- 2021-11: 2.9 (documented miss)

Bottoms:

- 2015-01: -0.4

- 2018-12: -0.3

- 2022-11: 0.1

The 2021-11 miss is structural. The double-top structure with a 5-month gap allowed coins to move during the May-July crash, partially catching up the RealizedCap baseline. By November the Z-Score had compressed even though spot made a fresh ATH. Same blind spot affects Mayer, Pi Cycle Top, and every MA-based cycle indicator on that date.

Why MVRV sits inside a 6-tier confluence model (SatoshiMacro Model Tier 1, 25% weight) rather than as a standalone trigger:

1. The 2021-11 miss is a structural blind spot. Double-top cycles need other signals corroborating.

2. Expanding-window stddev grows with the sample, so each cycle peak Z prints lower than the prior cycle. 11.5 in 2017 is not directly comparable to 2.9 in 2021 without normalising.

3. Position-sizing under uncertainty needs probabilistic input from multiple dimensions, not single-indicator triggers.

Full chart and methodology:

  satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/...

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