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$BTC Returns To Stay Strong but Not Spectacular, Says Bitwise CIO

$BTC may deliver steady returns over the next decade without exceptionally large year-on-year gains, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan. The forecast suggests a grind upward with lower volatility and moderate fluctuations rather than explosive growth.

Hougan maintains his projection that 2026 will be positive for Bitcoin (BTC), an outlook he first shared in July before the asset's run to an all-time high of $126,080 in October. Persistent, slow-moving institutional buying is protecting downside despite recent declines, he said on CNBC Friday.

#ReserveOne chief investment officer Sebastian Beau questioned whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle has ended, noting the asset dropped 30% from October's peak to current levels near $87,000. Market participants remain divided on cycle timing, with October's highs mirroring past four-year peaks.

The fast-moving retail crowd contributed to $BTC's year-end decline as investors rotated out in anticipation of historical cycle patterns, according to Hougan. Current drawdowns measure 30% compared to 60% declines seen in previous cycles, reflecting changed market dynamics.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted $BTC could fall as low as $60,000 by third quarter 2026, though other analysts remain #optimistic about long-term prospects. The asset trades at $87,818 at time of publication, down 3.81% over the past 30 days according to CoinMarketCap.

The #Trump administration is unlikely to provide significant additional upside for #Bitcoin's price despite early 2025 gains following the inauguration, Hougan stated. Clearer regulatory positioning means there is not much more the administration can do for the #asset.