$BTC Hashrate Drop Signals Potential Price Bottom


#Bitcoin's hashrate declined 4% over the month ending Dec. 15, which VanEck analysts view as a historically bullish contrarian signal. When hashrate compression persists over extended periods, positive forward returns tend to occur more frequently and with greater magnitude.


VanEck’s crypto research lead Matt Sigel and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush noted that since 2014, $BTC 90-day forward returns have been positive 65% of the time when network hashrate declined over the prior 30 days. This compares to 54% positive returns when hashrate increased during the same period.


The pattern strengthens when examining longer timeframes. Negative 90-day hashrate growth has been followed by positive 180-day $BTC returns 77% of the time, with an average gain of 72%. This outperforms the 61% positive return rate observed when hashrate increased over comparable periods.

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December 23, 2025 at 2:56 PM
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