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<p>Cryptocurrency is here to stay &#8211; or at least that&#8217;s what this recent rally has been telling us. With Bitcoin hitting a recent Year-To-Date High of $31,000, and Ethereum following in it&#8217;s footsteps following the Shapella upgrade, faith in Web3.0 has seemingly returned to all-time-highs.</p>



<p>With that in mind, we can now return to once again chasing a new high in net worth &#8211; a goal many of us thought would only come in 2-4 years. As the elusive millionaire status returns to creep into many of our minds (or maybe just mine), we have to wonder &#8211; how much ETH exactly do we need to get there?</p>



<p><strong>Also Read: </strong><a href="https://chaindebrief.com/cardano-to-yield-farming-crypto-portfolio/">Cardano To US$10? How I Recovered From A 70% Portfolio Drawdown</a></p>



<h2 id="a-primer-on-cryptocurrency-valuation-models">A Primer on Cryptocurrency Valuation Models</h2>



<p>In an <a href="https://yusoffkim.substack.com/p/on-models-and-memes">extremely naïve article</a> I published earlier in my crypto journey, I reflected that the world of Web3.0 was far too young to have it&#8217;s assets graphed out by TradFi valuation models.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="896" height="323" src="https://chaindebrief.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/image-25.png" alt="" class="wp-image-37326" srcset="https://chaindebrief.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/image-25.png 896w, https://chaindebrief.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/image-25-300x108.png 300w, https://chaindebrief.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/image-25-768x277.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 896px) 100vw, 896px" /></figure>



<p>While these &#8220;compare market cap of A to B&#8221; were all the rage during the bull market, the harsh reality was that almost no projects lived up to their potential.</p>



<p>Even when they did, poor tokenomics, sudden rugs, and the wrath of a bear market eventually forced them into slow, painful deaths. Deflationary mechanics and veTokenomics were also susceptible to the hyper volatility of Web3.0 &#8211; making it hard to &#8220;HODL&#8221; at the bottom.</p>



<p>Regardless, Bitcoin (and Ethereum) have managed to grow exponentially over the last few cycles, with the former adding a zero during every bull market. </p>



<p>That is to say that even if most of Web3.0 were to evaporate into thin air, it is likely that our two blue-chips will eventually pave the way for more exciting projects in the coming decade, be they ponzis or potential unicorns.</p>



<p>Furthermore, while these valuation models in no way guarantee that &#8220;X&#8221; amount of $ETH will translate into $1M, making an educated guess can help us set the foundation for accumulation, or at least prevent us from shifting goalposts too frequently.</p>



<h2 id="strong-if-bitcoin-hits-1m-where-will-eth-be-strong"><strong>If Bitcoin Hits $1M, Where Will ETH Be?</strong></h2>



<p>Two halving cycles will occur from today till 2030. By that time, only 1.5625 Bitcoin will be produced per block.</p>



<p>Assuming demand stays constant, that translates to a 4x reduction in supply, a model that results in the $1 million Bitcoin price prediction that has plagued headlines recently. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">History doesn&#39;t predict the future. But this is the history. 4 year cycles so far. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a><br><br>(Source: Data is public. Table made by <a href="https://twitter.com/gautamchhugani?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@gautamchhugani</a>, I think) <a href="https://t.co/deG75mNS84">pic.twitter.com/deG75mNS84</a></p>&mdash; CZ <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/14.0.0/72x72/1f536.png" alt="🔶" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Binance (@cz_binance) <a href="https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1620058528747753473?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 30, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<p>While a 33x in the world&#8217;s leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization seems ludicrous to us today, it may very well not be the case in a few years.</p>



<p>Over<a href="https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/#:~:text=Summary%E2%80%8B,million%20left%20to%20be%20mined."> 80% of Bitcoin&#8217;s maximum supply</a> have been mined, and a price of $1 million per token at maximum supply translates into a market capitalization of $21 Trillion &#8211; roughly double of the current gold market capitalization.</p>



<p>While I don&#8217;t personally believe that Bitcoin will double the market cap of gold, let&#8217;s take this into consideration for a second. </p>



<p>Ethereum currently accounts for approximately slightly under half of Bitcoin&#8217;s market capitalization. Assuming it maintains it&#8217;s total supply and manages to achieve exactly half of Bitcoin&#8217;s market capitalization, this would translate to an $ETH price of $8770.</p>



<p>$87706 is a 41x from current prices.</p>



<p>To be a millionaire by 2030, this would require you to hold 11.4 $ETH, or $24,114 at current prices.</p>



<p><strong>Also Read: </strong><a href="https://chaindebrief.com/the-shocking-truth-about-bitcoins-limited-supply/">The Shocking Truth About Bitcoin’s Limited Supply</a></p>



<h2 id="a-more-technical-breakdown">A More Technical Breakdown </h2>



<p>While scouring the internet to find a better valuation model (that did not flip constantly depending on the market), I stumbled across <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_Nl9SLifI0">this YouTube video by InvestAnswers.</a></p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Behold the remarkable stability of the digital behemoth, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a>. For the past 50 hours, brushes off CPI, it has been tightly confined to a minuscule 1% range 95% of the time. Peculiar lack of volatility is nothing short of mystifying! <a href="https://t.co/LGRJVclvuD">pic.twitter.com/LGRJVclvuD</a></p>&mdash; InvestAnswers (@invest_answers) <a href="https://twitter.com/invest_answers/status/1646373423592140800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<p>While slightly outdated, it does take a more reasonable stance than the Balaji prediction of $1M per Bitcoin.</p>



<p>I&#8217;ll let you watch the whole video if you want a thorough breakdown. </p>



<p>But in essence:</p>



<ul>
<li>Worst Case Scenario: $25,606</li>



<li>Conservative Model: $34,406</li>



<li>Aggressive Model: $55,199</li>
</ul>



<p>These valuations assume that Bitcoin will flip gold by 2030, and therefore reach a over $10T in market capitalization.</p>



<p>The worst case scenario uses a 22% annual growth rate. The conservative model assumes Ethereum hits 50% of Bitcoin&#8217;s market capitalization, and the aggressive case uses a ratio of 1ETH=0.1BTC.</p>



<p></p>



<p>Assuming these numbers, to be a millionaire you will need:</p>



<ul>
<li>Worst case scenario: 39 ETH or $82,000 at current prices</li>



<li>Conservative Model: 29 ETH or $61,355 at current prices</li>



<li>Aggressive Model: 18 ETH or $38,243 at current prices</li>
</ul>



<h2 id="strong-my-personal-prediction-strong"><strong>My Personal Prediction</strong></h2>



<p>If you&#8217;re wondering why you should listen to the thoughts and price prediction of a random writer &#8211; you don&#8217;t have to. In fact, I&#8217;ll more likely be wrong than right.</p>



<p>Instead, I&#8217;d like you to open your mind to some possible valuations of ETH and how to adjust accordingly.</p>



<p>The current train of thought on crypto Twitter is that ETH will hit $10,000 by the next cycle, and presumably be up only from here on out. So do we just front-load everything in now?</p>



<p>Let&#8217;s take the safe estimate of 39 $ETH, or $82,000 at current prices, needed to become a millionaire by 2030. </p>



<p>Most of us do not have $82,000 to allocate to a single asset right now. Furthermore, if you assume Ether is going to exponentially rise, the average price you will be allocating at will drastically increase over the years.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://chaindebrief.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/image-27.png" alt="" class="wp-image-37330" width="798" height="486" srcset="https://chaindebrief.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/image-27.png 590w, https://chaindebrief.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/image-27-300x183.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 798px) 100vw, 798px" /></figure>



<p>Even if we sandbag and accumulate ETH only at the lows of every market cycle (assuming a CAGR of 22% and a starting price of $2,100), you would only have accumulated around 21 $ETH by then &#8211; far less than what&#8217;s needed to be a millionaire.</p>



<p><em><strong>So either we yolo on small caps or treat ETH as a bank account?</strong></em></p>



<p>One thing I&#8217;ve taken away from all these price predictions is that Ethereum is still one of the greatest bets of our lifetime. A &#8220;safe&#8221; 5x in just a few years is practically unheard of.</p>



<p>Realistically, ETH&#8217;s chart will also be subject to more volatility than what was assumed in the ETH accumulated vs. Year chart above. </p>



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<p>One way to become a millionaire faster (and for less money) is to take advantage of the crypto market&#8217;s volatility, and dynamically DCA into the markets.</p>



<p>This seems easy, but takes a lot of conviction &#8211; something that only comes with an extended stay. ironically, it gets harder to press buy when ETH goes -90% into -90% instead of when everything is pumping.</p>



<p>By taking advantage of this,<a href="https://chaindebrief.com/top-5-crypto-airdrops-to-look-out-for/"> airdrops</a>, and<a href="https://chaindebrief.com/market-cycles-crypto-identify-tops-take-profits/"> random 100Xs</a> along the way, we can get to our goals much quicker than through conventional means.</p>



<p>Once again, while this seems easy enough &#8211; 1000% gains on random shitcoins will test our conviction, preventing us from selling tokens, and forcing us to buy in again at random all-time-highs.</p>



<p>Personally, I believe that ETH will be drastically above the $10,000 price prediction set out by many analysts today. Given the successful Shapella upgrade, <a href="https://ultrasound.money/">EIP-1559</a>, and the rampant rise of Layer 2s (which use $ETH for gas fees), the value accrual to Ether seems extremely asymmetric to the upside.</p>



<h2 id="closing-thoughts">Closing Thoughts</h2>



<p>Instead of starting at portfolios All-Time-Highs, I prefer to track my worst points, making a new low every cycle. Thankfully, this bear market has been very good to most who did not leave the space.</p>



<p>Generously taking from a total data set of 1 bull market and 1 bear market, my low in 2030 would be approximately a 25x from here, meaning I would require $40,000 in starting capital, a surprisingly achievable goal.</p>



<p>But I&#8217;ll probably get rugged along the way and still be poor.</p>



<p>Regardless, one takeaway from all the analysis is that if you believe in Web3.0 surviving till 2030, ETH, and Bitcoin, will both likely put in a 10x from here onwards.</p>



<p>And who&#8217;s to say that a 10x in under a decade isn&#8217;t life changing money?</p>



<p><strong>Also Read:</strong> <a href="https://chaindebrief.com/whales-begin-to-dump-as-crypto-fear-and-greed-reaches-yearly-high/">Whales Begin To Dump as Crypto Fear and Greed Reaches Yearly high</a></p>



<p><em>[Editor’s Note: This article does not represent financial advice. Please do your own research before investing.]</em></p>



<p><em>Featured Image Credit:</em>&nbsp;Analytics Insights</p>



<p></p>



<p></p>

How Much ETH Do You Need To Be a Millionaire By 2030?

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