<h2 id="header-0">Key Facts</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Arthur Hayes said the central-bank money printing that would follow an AI bust will be "glorious for Bitcoin and crypto hodlers," but added, "Be patient."</li>
 <li>He said a crisis has to come first, because "changing the behavior of the Fed and all other central banks requires the glimmer of a financial crisis."</li>
 <li>Hayes estimated Anthropic would face 83% dilution by June 2027, and called falling AI share prices "the transmission channel from AI to crypto."</li>
</ul>
The wave of central-bank money printing that would follow an artificial intelligence bust will be "glorious for Bitcoin and crypto hodlers," BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said. His advice to holders in the meantime: "Be patient."
The printing would only arrive after things break, Hayes argued in an essay <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://cryptohayes.medium.com/d-is-for-dilution-dc9ffc3ac6d1">published Thursday</a>. "Changing the behavior of the Fed and all other central banks requires the glimmer of a financial crisis," he said. The global economy cannot absorb a failed AI build-out, he said, so every major monetary and fiscal authority will print to forestall one.
<h2 id="header-1">Why Hayes Expects Liquidity to Get Worse First</h2>
The crisis Hayes is waiting for would start with AI share prices, which he called "the transmission channel from AI to crypto."
Banks lend to AI companies, finance stock speculators, and hold the paper themselves, he said. If AI equities fall, he argued, debt investors would demand higher yields or refuse to lend, credit markets would cool, and bank balance sheets would "at best flatline and at worse fall."
That matters because crypto needs someone's balance sheet to expand.
"Either the Fed or US commercial banks must together or by themselves grow their balance sheets to provide the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/liquidity">liquidity</a> needed to pump our crypto bags," he wrote. "The Fed, at least for now, is on strike." Chair Kevin Warsh, who <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-price-81k-fed-holds-rates-warsh">held rates steady in October</a>, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both favor bank credit creation over Fed expansion, he said, and the banking system's balance sheet fell week-over-week in the most recent print.<tweet-embed url="https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/2118194461528449450"></tweet-embed>
<h2 id="header-2">The Dilution Math Behind the Anthropic IPO Squeeze</h2>
Hayes's case for falling AI stocks rests on how much insider stock is scheduled to hit the market.
He estimated roughly 8.6 billion SpaceX shares are scheduled to unlock by the end of June 2027, about 50% dilution, most of it Elon Musk's vesting stake. For Anthropic, which <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/anthropic-files-s1-ipo-nasdaq-ant">filed an S-1 to list on Nasdaq</a> under the ticker ANT on Oct. 26, he put dilution at 83% by June 2027 and said a $1.5 trillion listing would need about $1.245 trillion of new capital for the price merely to stand still.
OpenAI would be worst of the three, he said. The company cut its current raise to about $20 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, down from a $30 billion target, according to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/31/openai-fundraising-20-billion-valuation.html">CNBC</a>.
The distinction that matters is per-share price rather than total value, Hayes said, drawing on Zcash's 2016 launch: "You don't trade the market cap. You trade the price per token." A rising <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/market-capitalization-market-cap-mcap">market cap</a> can mask falling prices when <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/circulating-supply">supply</a> expands underneath it.
His fund is not buying the dip yet. Maelstrom "will chill on the sidelines," he wrote. Bitwise's chief investment officer offered a more forgiving read of the same backdrop in October, arguing <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-bitwise-hougan-every-macro-path-bitcoin-every-macro-path-leads-to-bitcoin">every macro path leads to Bitcoin</a>.
Read More:&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-price-new-lows-ai-bubble-fears">Bitcoin Price Risks New Lows as AI Bubble Fears Hit Markets</a>

AI Bailout Will Be 'Glorious' for Bitcoin, Says Arthur Hayes

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