2024

Orange

Steve

Polymarket

<p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/california-governor-results" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">NBC News</a>, based on AP data, projects Xavier Becerra as the winner of the California governor's race against Steve Hilton. At 10:10 CET the count stood at 64.1 to 35.9 percent with 56.1 percent counted. Polls in California close at 05:00 CET. Gavin Newsom <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">cannot run for a third term</a>, and Republicans have not won the governorship since 2006. On the same ballot is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_billionaire_tax_initiative" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Proposition 40</a>, a one-time 5 percent tax on California residents worth more than $1 billion, which has drawn <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_One-Time_Wealth_Tax_for_State-Funded_Health_Care_Programs_Initiative_(2026)" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">more than $140 million in opposition donations according to filings through 22 October</a>, with Ripple and its co-founder Chris Larsen among the donors. On Proposition 40, Yes stood at 43.9 and No at 56.1 percent with 56 percent counted at 10:10 CET. Polymarket put passage at 3.4 percent at 10:10 CET.</p>
<p><strong>California election results: the key facts</strong></p>
<ul>
 <li><strong>Governor (10:10 CET):</strong> Becerra 4,723,300 votes (64.1 percent), Hilton 2,644,830 (35.9 percent), 56.1 percent counted.</li>
 <li><strong>Proposition 40:</strong> On Proposition 40, Yes stood at 43.9 and No at 56.1 percent with 56 percent counted at 10:10 CET. Polymarket put passage at 3.4 percent at 10:10 CET.</li>
 <li><strong>2024:</strong> Kamala Harris won California in 2024 with 9,276,179 votes to 6,081,697 for Donald Trump, a margin of 20.1 points.</li>
 <li><strong>Both candidates</strong> oppose the billionaire tax, and so does Governor Newsom.</li>
 <li><strong>Prediction market, governor:</strong> the race is called; see <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket</a> for the settled market.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="california-election-results-why-the-count-takes-days">California election results: why the count takes days</h2>
<p>California and other Western states count for days, so the first numbers tell you little about the final margin. We estimate about 5,769,000 votes are still out, most of them in Los Angeles, San Diego, Riverside. Race calls can come quickly in a state this large and this Democratic, while close House districts and ballot measures can stay open much longer.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/ca_rest_en_1793782577_f6e3c5d24a.webp" alt="Bar chart of the California counties with the most estimated votes still out and the margin so far" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  Source: AP via NBC News, own estimate
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="california-2024-vs-2026-where-the-counties-moved">California 2024 vs 2026: where the counties moved</h2>
<p>Los Angeles County went from D+32.9 in the 2024 presidential race to D+43.4 now, with 62 percent counted. San Diego County went from D+16.8 in the 2024 presidential race to D+20.1 now, with 60 percent counted. Orange County went from D+2.7 in the 2024 presidential race to D+6.5 now, with 64 percent counted. Riverside County, in the Inland Empire, went from R+1.3 in the 2024 presidential race to D+15.4 now, with 42 percent counted. Across the larger areas with at least half of the count in, the margin moved 7.0 points toward Democrats on average. These figures compare a partial count with a full presidential count, so the final swing can still change in either direction.</p>
<table>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th>County</th>
   <th>Trump vs Harris 2024</th>
   <th>Hilton vs Becerra 2026</th>
   <th>Counted</th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
  <tr>
   <td>Los Angeles</td>
   <td>D+32.9</td>
   <td>D+43.4</td>
   <td>62 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Orange</td>
   <td>D+2.7</td>
   <td>D+6.5</td>
   <td>64 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>San Diego</td>
   <td>D+16.8</td>
   <td>D+20.1</td>
   <td>60 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Riverside</td>
   <td>R+1.3</td>
   <td>D+15.4</td>
   <td>42 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>San Bernardino</td>
   <td>R+2.1</td>
   <td>D+15.5</td>
   <td>52 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Santa Clara</td>
   <td>D+39.9</td>
   <td>D+39.4</td>
   <td>48 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Alameda</td>
   <td>D+53.6</td>
   <td>D+58.7</td>
   <td>55 %</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td>Contra Costa</td>
   <td>D+37.9</td>
   <td>D+41.6</td>
   <td>65 %</td>
  </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
<figure><img src="https://cryptoticker-strapi-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/ca_swing_en_1793782577_e5498866e1.webp" alt="Chart of the largest California counties comparing the margin in the 2024 presidential race and the 2026 governor's race" width="1920" height="1080">
 <figcaption>
  Source: AP via NBC News, 2024 results via NBC News
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="who-are-xavier-becerra-and-steve-hilton">Who are Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton?</h2>
<p>Xavier Becerra was attorney general of California from 2017 to 2021 and US secretary of health and human services from 2021 to 2025. Steve Hilton is a Republican political commentator. They <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">advanced from a top-two primary on 2 June</a> with 61 candidates on the ballot, ahead of Democrats including Katie Porter and Tom Steyer.</p>
<h2 id="california-billionaire-tax-what-proposition-40-does">California billionaire tax: what Proposition 40 does</h2>
<p>Proposition 40 would charge a one-time 5 percent tax on the net worth of residents worth more than $1 billion, with January 1, 2026 as the residency cut-off. Ninety percent of the money would go to state-funded healthcare, including Medi-Cal, and the rest to food assistance and public education. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_One-Time_Wealth_Tax_for_State-Funded_Health_Care_Programs_Initiative_(2026)" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ballotpedia's summary</a> counts publicly traded securities at their market value on 31 December 2026, private business interests and other financial instruments toward net worth, so founders' stakes in private companies would be part of the calculation.</p>
<p>The revenue is disputed. The union behind the measure, SEIU-UHW, estimates $100 billion. The state's Legislative Analyst's Office expects a temporary gain of up to tens of billions of dollars and a possible loss of less than $1 billion a year in income tax. Stanford and Hoover researchers estimated a net cost of $39 billion and found a net loss in 85 percent of their simulated scenarios. Seven of the state's estimated 214 billionaires, including Peter Thiel, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, were reported to have left around the deadline.</p>
<h2 id="proposition-40-and-crypto-who-is-paying-to-stop-it">Proposition 40 and crypto: who is paying to stop it</h2>
<p>This is where the vote reaches the crypto industry. The main opposition committee, backed by Building a Better California, a group co-founded by Brin and Eric Schmidt, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_billionaire_tax_initiative" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">had raised $118 million by August, primarily from Brin, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen and John Doerr</a>. <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California_One-Time_Wealth_Tax_for_State-Funded_Health_Care_Programs_Initiative_(2026)" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ballotpedia's filing data</a> shows Brin with $102 million and Doerr with $30 million as the largest donors through 22 October. Thiel reportedly gave around $100 million to a separate committee. The group also sponsored two rival measures on the same ballot: Proposition 41, which would require audits of new special taxes and bar new taxes from being exempted from the state spending limit, and Proposition 42, which would ban new taxes on retirement holdings, personal assets and savings as well as retroactive taxes. Both contain a clause under which they would void Proposition 40 if they receive more votes than it. All of them are on <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/california-ballot-measures" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">NBC's ballot measure page</a>.</p>
<p>The company itself is in the fight too. Ripple spent $56 million across state and federal elections this year, <a href="https://missionlocal.org/2026/07/california-billionaires-election-money-politics-san-francisco/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">including roughly $5 million to Golden State Promise</a>, a statewide committee against the tax, and $49 million to federal PACs with a crypto-friendly agenda, Mission Local reported in July. Larsen and Bitcoin investor Tim Draper also launched <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-larsen-draper-40m-california-politics-wealth-tax-unions" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Grow California</a>, which claims about $40 million in commitments and aims to counter union-backed wealth tax plans.</p>
<p>Supporters include Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Ro Khanna, the California Democratic Party and six Nobel laureates in economics. Opponents include Newsom, both candidates for governor, The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times. The six Nobel laureates wrote that a yes would "kickstart a movement" to tax the ultra-wealthy elsewhere, so wealthy holders of company stock and tokens outside California have a reason to watch too. In the House races, <a href="https://influence.citationneeded.news/2026/states/california" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Tech Influence Watch</a> lists $3,321,568 from the Fairshake affiliate Protect Progress in twelve California districts and $1,015,758 from Fairshake in District 45.</p>
<h2 id="why-california-matters-for-the-house">Why California matters for the House</h2>
<p>California elects all 52 House members this year <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_elections" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">on maps redrawn under Proposition 50</a>, and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is among those not running again. Because the state counts slowly, the final seat numbers may not be known for days. All calls are in our <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/midterm-election-results-2026-live/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">midterm results live ticker</a>. More from the states: <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/florida-governor-race-results-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">why Florida's governor race got so close</a>, <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/texas-senate-race-results-talarico-paxton/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Texas and the Bitcoin reserve</a> and <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/midterms-2026-vs-2024-biggest-changes/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the biggest changes since 2024</a>.</p>
<h2 id="what-polymarket-says-about-california">What Polymarket says about California</h2>
<p>With the race called, the prediction market has little left to price. The open question for traders is the balance of power in Washington. The separate <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">market on Proposition 40</a> shows what traders expect from the tax vote. If you hold coins through a week like this, compare <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-regulated-exchange/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">regulated crypto exchanges</a> and <a href="https://cryptoticker.io/en/comparison/best-crypto-broker/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">crypto brokers</a> first. This article is not investment or tax advice.</p>

California Governor Race Results: Becerra vs Hilton and the Billionaire Tax Vote on Proposition 40

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