Stablecoin

Movement

USDC

<h2 id="key-takeaways">Key Takeaways</h2>
<div class="light-yellow-block">
 <ul>
  <li><strong>ARK sold 342,545 Bullish shares across two sessions</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Coinbase transaction revenue fell 44% year over year</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Circle’s Q2 reserve return rate fell 66 basis points</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Circle reports third-quarter results on November 4</strong></li>
 </ul>
</div>
<p><a href="https://www.ark-funds.com/ark-trade-notifications" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ARK’s trade notice for Monday, November 2</a>, lists the purchases and sales across its ARKK, ARKW and ARKF funds, extending a matching set of trades that <a href="https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/cathie-woods-ark-sells-eli-lilly-stock-buys-tempus-ai-and-coinbase-93CH-4988958" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Investing.com reported from ARK’s October 30 disclosure</a>.</p>
<h2 id="the-buying-landed-between-two-earnings-reports">The buying landed between two earnings reports</h2>
<figure style="margin: 1.5em 0;">
 <table style="width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; table-layout: fixed; font-size: 0.95em; font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;">
  <caption style="caption-side: top; text-align: left; font-weight: 600; padding: 0 0 8px;">
   ARK share trades by session, 2026
  </caption>
  <thead>
   <tr>
    <th style="width: 40%; text-align: left; padding: 8px 6px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.45);" scope="col">Stock</th>
    <th style="text-align: right; padding: 8px 6px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.45);" scope="col">Fri, Oct 30</th>
    <th style="text-align: right; padding: 8px 6px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.45);" scope="col">Mon, Nov 2</th>
    <th style="text-align: right; padding: 8px 6px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.45);" scope="col">Total</th>
   </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
   <tr>
    <th style="text-align: left; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3); font-weight: 600;" scope="row">Coinbase (COIN)<span style="display: block; font-size: 0.78em; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 0.05em; text-transform: uppercase; color: #22a55b;">▲ Bought</span></th>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3);">39,418</td>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3);">24,790</td>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3); font-weight: 600;">64,208</td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <th style="text-align: left; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3); font-weight: 600;" scope="row">Circle (CRCL)<span style="display: block; font-size: 0.78em; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 0.05em; text-transform: uppercase; color: #22a55b;">▲ Bought</span></th>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3);">74,894</td>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3);">35,657</td>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3); font-weight: 600;">110,551</td>
   </tr>
   <tr>
    <th style="text-align: left; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3); font-weight: 600;" scope="row">Bullish (BLSH)<span style="display: block; font-size: 0.78em; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 0.05em; text-transform: uppercase; color: #e5484d;">▼ Sold</span></th>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3);">238,373</td>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3);">104,172</td>
    <td style="text-align: right; padding: 10px 6px; border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.3); font-weight: 600;">342,545</td>
   </tr>
  </tbody>
 </table>
 <figcaption style="font-size: 0.82em; line-height: 1.5; opacity: 0.8; padding-top: 8px;">
  Friday figures as reported by Investing.com; Monday figures from ARK’s trade notice. ARK describes these notices as unofficial and unreconciled: they exclude ETF creation and redemption activity and offering transactions, and they carry no execution prices. Share counts are not dollar amounts, since the three stocks trade at different prices.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Coinbase has already published its third-quarter 10-Q, so ARK added to the exchange with its latest stablecoin figures on the table. Circle’s numbers follow on November 4 and Bullish’s on November 18. ARK added to Circle with that company’s results two days away and reduced Bullish more than two weeks before its next report.</p>
<h2 id="how-much-of-each-business-rides-on-usdc">How much of each business rides on USDC</h2>
<div style="margin: 1.5em 0;">
 <p style="margin: 0 0 10px; font-weight: 600;">Where each company’s revenue comes from</p>
 <div style="display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit,minmax(min(100%,190px),1fr)); gap: 12px;">
  <div style="border: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.35); border-top: 4px solid #2775ca; border-radius: 8px; padding: 14px 16px; background: rgba(128,128,128,0.06);">
   <p style="margin: 0; font-size: 0.78em; letter-spacing: 0.06em; text-transform: uppercase; opacity: 0.75;">Circle · Q2 2026</p>
   <p style="margin: 6px 0 4px; font-size: 1.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1;">≈95%</p>
   <p style="margin: 0; font-size: 0.92em; line-height: 1.4;">of total revenue and reserve income came from USDC reserve income</p>
  </div>
  <div style="border: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.35); border-top: 4px solid #3b6ff5; border-radius: 8px; padding: 14px 16px; background: rgba(128,128,128,0.06);">
   <p style="margin: 0; font-size: 0.78em; letter-spacing: 0.06em; text-transform: uppercase; opacity: 0.75;">Coinbase · Q3 2026</p>
   <p style="margin: 6px 0 4px; font-size: 1.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1;">26.4%</p>
   <p style="margin: 0; font-size: 0.92em; line-height: 1.4;">of net revenue came from stablecoins</p>
  </div>
  <div style="border: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.35); border-top: 4px solid #f59e0b; border-radius: 8px; padding: 14px 16px; background: rgba(128,128,128,0.06);">
   <p style="margin: 0; font-size: 0.78em; letter-spacing: 0.06em; text-transform: uppercase; opacity: 0.75;">Bullish · Q2 2026</p>
   <p style="margin: 6px 0 4px; font-size: 1.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.1;">68%</p>
   <p style="margin: 0; font-size: 0.92em; line-height: 1.4;">of adjusted revenue came from subscriptions, services and other lines</p>
  </div>
 </div>
</div>
<p>Coinbase’s <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000167978826000122/coin-20260930.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">third-quarter 10-Q</a> shows the stablecoin line carrying more weight than it did a year ago. Stablecoin revenue slipped about 5% to $306.9 million, while transaction revenue dropped 44% to $590.2 million. Because trading shrank far faster, stablecoins went from roughly 18% of net revenue in the third quarter of 2025 to more than a quarter of it now.</p>
<p>Circle sits at the far end of that scale. Its <a href="https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">second-quarter results</a> showed $701 million in total revenue and reserve income, up 7% from a year earlier, with reserves generating nearly all of it. Keeping that income is another matter: distribution, transaction and other costs took $412 million, close to 59 cents of every revenue dollar, mostly in payments to distribution partners.</p>
<h2 id="owning-both-ends-of-the-same-payment">Owning both ends of the same payment</h2>
<p>A large part of those distribution payments goes to Coinbase, an arrangement Coindoo breaks down in its explainer on <a href="https://coindoo.com/who-earns-interest-usdc/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">how Circle and Coinbase share USDC income</a>. For ARK, that changes what the two purchases add up to. Money leaving Circle as a distribution cost reappears as Coinbase stablecoin revenue, so holding both stocks means sharing one income pool rather than doubling a bet on it. A shift in how the two companies split that income has less effect on a holder of both than a change in the size of the pool.</p>
<p>The pool depends on two things: how much USDC is outstanding and what its reserves earn. In Circle’s second quarter, those pulled in opposite directions. Average USDC in circulation grew 25% year over year, yet reserve income rose only 5% because the reserve return rate fell 66 basis points.</p>
<p>That is the strongest case against the trade. Larger balances do not translate into larger income when short-term rates fall, and both stocks carry the same rate exposure. Holding Circle and Coinbase together concentrates that risk rather than spreading it.</p>
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<h2 id="the-bullish-that-ark-is-selling-is-changing-shape">The Bullish that ARK is selling is changing shape</h2>
<p>Bullish earns its money very differently. In its <a href="https://investors.bullish.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bullish-reports-second-quarter-2026-results" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">second quarter</a>, the company reported $92.6 million in adjusted revenue, a non-IFRS measure. Of that, $29.9 million came from transactions, and the rest from subscriptions, services and other lines such as CoinDesk data, indices, media and liquidity services.</p>
<p>That mix is set to change if a pending acquisition closes. In May, Bullish agreed to buy transfer agent Equiniti in a <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001872195/000143774926014727/blsh20260505_6k.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$4.2 billion deal</a> made up of $1.85 billion in assumed debt and about $2.35 billion in Bullish stock. On the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001872195/000143774926014860/ex_956771.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">investor call filed with the SEC</a>, management put the stock portion at roughly 61 million new shares. Bullish’s <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001872195/000143774926033697/ex_1031488.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">October 28 filing</a> calculated its fully diluted share count near 156 million, so the deal would add new shares equal to about 39% of that base. Closing is expected in January 2027, subject to regulatory approvals.</p>
<p>ARK has bought Bullish before, including <a href="https://coindoo.com/ark-invest-adds-8m-in-bullish-stock-ahead-of-earnings/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">purchases Coindoo covered in September 2025</a>. The latest sales cut into a company whose revenue base, share count and core business could look substantially different a year from now.</p>
<h2 id="where-the-three-positions-now-sit-in-arkk">Where the three positions now sit in ARKK</h2>
<div style="margin: 1.5em 0; padding: 16px; border: 1px solid rgba(128,128,128,0.35); border-radius: 8px;">
 <p style="margin: 0 0 12px; font-weight: 600;">ARKK portfolio weight, November 2 holdings</p>
 <div style="margin: 0 0 12px;">
  <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; gap: 8px; font-size: 0.92em; margin-bottom: 4px;">
   Circle (CRCL)<span style="font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; font-weight: 600;">4.5%</span>
  </div>
  <div style="height: 10px; border-radius: 5px; background: rgba(128,128,128,0.18);">
   <div style="width: 90%; height: 100%; border-radius: 5px; background: #2775ca;"></div>
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="margin: 0 0 12px;">
  <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; gap: 8px; font-size: 0.92em; margin-bottom: 4px;">
   Coinbase (COIN)<span style="font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; font-weight: 600;">3.8%</span>
  </div>
  <div style="height: 10px; border-radius: 5px; background: rgba(128,128,128,0.18);">
   <div style="width: 76%; height: 100%; border-radius: 5px; background: #3b6ff5;"></div>
  </div>
 </div>
 <div>
  <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; gap: 8px; font-size: 0.92em; margin-bottom: 4px;">
   Bullish (BLSH)<span style="font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; font-weight: 600;">1.5%</span>
  </div>
  <div style="height: 10px; border-radius: 5px; background: rgba(128,128,128,0.18);">
   <div style="width: 30%; height: 100%; border-radius: 5px; background: #f59e0b;"></div>
  </div>
 </div>
</div>
<p><a href="https://assets.ark-funds.com/fund-documents/funds-etf-csv/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS.csv" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ARK’s November 2 holdings file</a> shows the two USDC-linked names together carrying more than five times Bullish’s weight in the flagship fund. Because weights also move with share prices, the file shows where the positions stand rather than how much two days of buying added.</p>
<h2 id="what-circle-s-november-4-numbers-can-confirm">What Circle’s November 4 numbers can confirm</h2>
<p>Circle <a href="https://investor.circle.com/news/news-details/2026/Circle-to-Announce-Q3-2026-Financial-Results-on-November-4-2026/default.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reports on November 4</a>, with a webcast at 8 a.m. ET. Its third quarter covers the same July-to-September period as Coinbase’s 10-Q, so both sides of the USDC split can be read against each other.</p>
<div style="margin: 1.5em 0; border-left: 4px solid #2775ca; padding: 4px 0 4px 16px;">
 <p style="margin: 0 0 10px; font-weight: 600;">Three lines to read in Circle’s Q3 report</p>
 <ol style="margin: 0; padding-left: 1.2em; line-height: 1.6;">
  <li style="margin-bottom: 8px;"><strong>Reserve income against a year earlier.</strong> If it grew while Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue shrank, Coinbase took a smaller slice. If it fell as well, lower yields shrank the pool itself.</li>
  <li style="margin-bottom: 8px;"><strong>Average USDC against the reserve return rate.</strong> Whether balance growth outpaced the yield decline that held Q2 reserve income to single-digit growth.</li>
  <li><strong>Distribution costs as a share of revenue.</strong> Movement here shows whether partners are capturing more or less of each reserve dollar, which shifts value between ARK’s two holdings without changing their combined pool.</li>
 </ol>
</div>
<p>If Circle’s reserve income holds up as rates decline, the USDC tilt in ARK’s latest trades has firmer support. If yields erase the balance growth again, both new positions face the same pressure at once.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://coindoo.com/cathiecathie-wood-leans-into-usdc-trims-bullish/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cathie Wood Leans Into USDC – Trims Bullish</a> appeared first on <a href="https://coindoo.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coindoo</a>.</p>

Cathie Wood Leans Into USDC – Trims Bullish

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