<ul>
 <li><strong>Bitcoin reached major bear-market lows after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 U.S. midterms, although each downturn had different causes.</strong></li>
 <li><strong>Previous post-election declines challenge the assumption that congressional votes immediately trigger cryptocurrency recoveries.</strong></li>
 <li><strong>Weak technical momentum and declining futures open interest leave Bitcoin vulnerable ahead of the November 3 election.</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Bitcoin is trading near $78,000 ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections, drawing attention to a historical pattern in which the cryptocurrency established major bear-market lows shortly after previous congressional votes.</p>
<p>The three completed midterm cycles offer a potentially useful comparison, although their turning points occurred under substantially different financial conditions. More importantly, Bitcoin continued declining after each election before recovering.</p>
<h2 id="what-happened-to-bitcoin-after-previous-u-s-midterms">What Happened to Bitcoin After Previous U.S. Midterms?</h2>
<p>The relationship between Bitcoin’s market cycles and U.S. elections is notable, but the historical evidence does not support a simple post-election rally narrative.</p>
<figure style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img src="https://ethnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/bitcoin-us-midterm-1024x478.webp" alt="Historical Bitcoin price chart comparing BTC market cycles around the 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026 U.S. midterm elections, highlighting previous market bottoms and subsequent rallies." width="696" height="325">
 <figcaption>
  Previous U.S. midterm election cycles were followed by major Bitcoin recoveries, raising questions about whether history could repeat in 2026.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h3 id="2014-mt-gox-and-the-unwinding-of-bitcoin-s-first-major-boom">2014: Mt. Gox and the Unwinding of Bitcoin’s First Major Boom</h3>
<p>The November 2014 election occurred during a prolonged cryptocurrency downturn.</p>
<p>Mt. Gox had collapsed earlier that year, damaging confidence in trading infrastructure as the speculative rally of 2013 continued unwinding.</p>
<p>Bitcoin eventually established a cycle low near $170–$180 in January 2015.</p>
<p>Its subsequent recovery developed gradually, with prices consolidating throughout much of 2015 before the expansion that culminated in the 2017 bull market.</p>
<h3 id="2018-bitcoin-cash-dispute-intensifies-selling">2018: Bitcoin Cash Dispute Intensifies Selling</h3>
<p>The 2018 midterms followed a year of declining cryptocurrency valuations after Bitcoin’s December 2017 peak.</p>
<p>Following the November 6 election, Bitcoin broke below a prolonged consolidation range around $6,000.</p>
<p>The Bitcoin Cash hard-fork dispute added uncertainty, while weaker market liquidity and declining speculative demand amplified the selloff.</p>
<p>The cryptocurrency established its cycle low near $3,200 in December before recovering during 2019.</p>
<h3 id="2022-ftx-collapse-triggers-a-liquidity-crisis">2022: FTX Collapse Triggers a Liquidity Crisis</h3>
<p>The November 8, 2022 election coincided with one of the cryptocurrency industry’s most significant institutional failures.</p>
<p>FTX halted customer withdrawals on Election Day and filed for bankruptcy three days later.</p>
<p>The collapse triggered further liquidations and counterparty concerns across the sector.</p>
<p>Bitcoin subsequently traded near $15,500–$15,800 before recovering.</p>
<p>Unlike the earlier cycles, the immediate post-election decline was closely associated with an identifiable exchange failure rather than a prolonged deterioration in market conditions.</p>
<h2 id="historical-bitcoin-performance-after-midterm-elections">Historical Bitcoin Performance After Midterm Elections</h2>
<p>The following visualization compares the additional declines recorded between election day and the subsequent cycle low.</p>
<div style="max-width: 760px; margin: 24px 0; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; color: #202d3d;">
 <div style="background: #142338; border: 1px solid #dce3eb; border-radius: 14px; overflow: hidden;">
  <div style="padding: 22px 19px; color: #ffffff;">
   <div style="font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: 1.3px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #a7bfd7; font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 8px;">
    Bitcoin Historical Market Cycles
   </div>
   <div style="font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.35; font-weight: 800;">
    Bitcoin’s Post-Midterm Drawdowns
   </div>
   <div style="font-size: 12px; color: #b9c9d9; margin-top: 8px; line-height: 1.6;">
    Additional price declines before the subsequent cycle bottom
   </div>
  </div>
  <div style="background: #ffffff; padding: 17px 15px 5px;">
   <div style="padding: 16px 14px; margin-bottom: 12px; background: #f6f8fb; border: 1px solid #e3e8ef; border-radius: 10px;">
    <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; gap: 10px; flex-wrap: wrap;">
     <div>
      <div style="font-size: 11px; color: #68788b; margin-bottom: 4px;">
       NOVEMBER 4, 2014
      </div>
      <div style="font-size: 18px; font-weight: 800;">
       2014 Midterms
      </div>
     </div>
     <div style="font-size: 23px; font-weight: 800; color: #b65a42;">
      −46%
     </div>
    </div>
    <div style="margin: 15px 0 9px; height: 9px; background: #e3e8ef; border-radius: 10px; overflow: hidden;">
     <div style="width: 92%; height: 100%; background: #c66b4e; border-radius: 10px;"></div>
    </div>
    <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; gap: 8px; flex-wrap: wrap; font-size: 12px; color: #607084;">
     Low: January 2015 <br><strong style="color: #27384b;">71 days later</strong>
    </div>
   </div>
   <div style="padding: 16px 14px; margin-bottom: 12px; background: #f6f8fb; border: 1px solid #e3e8ef; border-radius: 10px;">
    <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; gap: 10px; flex-wrap: wrap;">
     <div>
      <div style="font-size: 11px; color: #68788b; margin-bottom: 4px;">
       NOVEMBER 6, 2018
      </div>
      <div style="font-size: 18px; font-weight: 800;">
       2018 Midterms
      </div>
     </div>
     <div style="font-size: 23px; font-weight: 800; color: #b65a42;">
      −50%
     </div>
    </div>
    <div style="margin: 15px 0 9px; height: 9px; background: #e3e8ef; border-radius: 10px; overflow: hidden;">
     <div style="width: 100%; height: 100%; background: #c66b4e; border-radius: 10px;"></div>
    </div>
    <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; gap: 8px; flex-wrap: wrap; font-size: 12px; color: #607084;">
     Low: December 2018 <br><strong style="color: #27384b;">39 days later</strong>
    </div>
   </div>
   <div style="padding: 16px 14px; margin-bottom: 12px; background: #f6f8fb; border: 1px solid #e3e8ef; border-radius: 10px;">
    <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; gap: 10px; flex-wrap: wrap;">
     <div>
      <div style="font-size: 11px; color: #68788b; margin-bottom: 4px;">
       NOVEMBER 8, 2022
      </div>
      <div style="font-size: 18px; font-weight: 800;">
       2022 Midterms
      </div>
     </div>
     <div style="font-size: 23px; font-weight: 800; color: #b65a42;">
      −15%
     </div>
    </div>
    <div style="margin: 15px 0 9px; height: 9px; background: #e3e8ef; border-radius: 10px; overflow: hidden;">
     <div style="width: 30%; height: 100%; background: #c66b4e; border-radius: 10px;"></div>
    </div>
    <div style="display: flex; justify-content: space-between; gap: 8px; flex-wrap: wrap; font-size: 12px; color: #607084;">
     Low: November 2022 <br><strong style="color: #27384b;">13 days later</strong>
    </div>
   </div>
  </div>
  <div style="background: #eaf0f6; padding: 15px 19px; border-top: 1px solid #dce4ed;">
   <div style="font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: 1px; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: 800; color: #526b86; margin-bottom: 6px;">
    Historical Observation
   </div>
   <div style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.65; color: #30445b;">
    Bitcoin continued falling after each election. Three observations do not establish an election-driven market cycle.
   </div>
  </div>
  <div style="background: #f8fafc; padding: 11px 19px; font-size: 11px; line-height: 1.6; color: #718096;">
   Source: TradingView and Bitstamp historical BTC data. Approximate drawdowns relative to election-day closing prices. Bars are scaled to the largest decline.
  </div>
 </div>
</div>
<p>The historical sequence is important because it contradicts the assumption that midterm elections immediately improve cryptocurrency market conditions.</p>
<p>Each recovery followed a different combination of liquidity changes, declining selling pressure and stabilization within the broader digital-asset industry.</p>
<p>With only three completed observations, the pattern is insufficient to establish a statistically reliable trading strategy.</p>
<h2 id="could-bitcoin-s-2026-bottom-already-be-behind-it">Could Bitcoin’s 2026 Bottom Already Be Behind It?</h2>
<p>The current cycle presents an important complication.</p>
<p>Bitcoin fell to approximately $57,850 on July 1, several months before the November election.</p>
<p>At its current level, the cryptocurrency remains roughly 35% above that trough despite October’s weakness.</p>
<p>If the July low holds, the 2026 cycle may have established its bottom before the election, breaking the timing sequence observed in the previous three cycles.</p>
<p>A decline beneath that level would instead strengthen comparisons with earlier post-midterm downturns.</p>
<p>Such a move would require Bitcoin to lose approximately 26% from its current price.</p>
<p>The relationship between congressional elections and Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle also deserves scrutiny.</p>
<p>U.S. midterms occur every four years, broadly overlapping with Bitcoin’s halving schedule and the recurring phases of speculative expansion and contraction historically associated with its supply cycle.</p>
<p>This overlap makes it difficult to isolate any independent election effect.</p>
<h2 id="bitcoin-technical-analysis-shows-weak-momentum">Bitcoin Technical Analysis Shows Weak Momentum</h2>
<p>Bitcoin’s daily chart continues to reflect downward pressure following its October decline.</p>
<figure style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img src="https://ethnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/BTCUSD_2026-11-02_09-39-49-1024x798.webp" alt="Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily chart on Coinbase showing price consolidation near $78,000 following a sharp decline, with RSI and MACD indicators reflecting bearish momentum." width="696" height="542">
 <figcaption>
  Bitcoin struggles to establish a sustained recovery as technical indicators remain bearish. <strong><a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/Ds9qR56x/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Chart by Alexander Zdravkov, TradingView</a></strong>.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Relative Strength Index stood at 38.80, below its moving average of 43.22.</p>
<p>Although the indicator remains above the conventional oversold threshold of 30, its position below 50 suggests bearish momentum continues to dominate.</p>
<p>The MACD reinforces that assessment.</p>
<p>Its main line was approximately −1,163, below the signal line near −767, while the histogram remained negative.</p>
<p>Both lines were below zero, indicating that the market had not yet established a convincing momentum reversal.</p>
<p>The immediate price structure shows stabilization <strong><a href="https://ethnews.com/michael-saylor-hints-at-bitcoin-buy-as-btc-struggles-near-78000/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">around $77,000–$78,000</a></strong>, with additional support near $75,000–$76,000.</p>
<p>A sustained recovery above $80,000 would improve the short-term outlook, while the $82,500–$85,000 region remains an important overhead resistance area.</p>
<p>These levels reflect observable price action rather than confirmed liquidation concentrations.</p>
<h2 id="derivatives-traders-reduce-exposure-ahead-of-the-vote">Derivatives Traders Reduce Exposure Ahead of the Vote</h2>
<p>Bitcoin futures open interest stood near $27.2 billion, <strong><a href="https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/open-interest/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">according to information from Coinalyze</a></strong>, declining approximately 0.94% over the preceding 24 hours.</p>
<p>Perpetual contracts accounted for approximately $26.4 billion, making them the dominant component of outstanding positions.</p>
<p>The reduction in open interest alongside weaker prices is consistent with some leveraged positions being closed or reduced.</p>
<p>However, open interest alone cannot distinguish voluntary deleveraging from forced liquidations or establish the directional bias of remaining traders.</p>
<p>Positioning also remains concentrated across major exchanges.</p>
<p>Binance, Bybit and OKX collectively accounted for approximately 74% of reported Bitcoin open interest, meaning changes in activity across these venues can significantly influence aggregate derivatives statistics.</p>
<p>Without corresponding funding rates, liquidation data and directional positioning, the figures offer limited evidence of an approaching market reversal.</p>
<h2 id="the-historical-window-extends-into-early-2027">The Historical Window Extends Into Early 2027</h2>
<p>The next U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, <strong><a href="https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/? target=" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">according to the Federal Election Commission</a></strong>.</p>
<p>Applying the historical intervals would place comparable observation dates between November 16, 2026, and January 13, 2027.</p>
<p>Those dates are not price forecasts. They simply reproduce the timing of previous market bottoms relative to election day.</p>
<p>The more consequential question is whether Bitcoin establishes a new cycle low during that period or continues trading above its July trough.</p>
<p>For now, technical indicators show weak momentum, while derivatives data suggest some reduction in leveraged exposure.</p>
<p>The historical election pattern remains noteworthy, but Bitcoin’s previous recoveries emerged from changing market conditions rather than demonstrable effects of congressional voting.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://ethnews.com/bitcoin-faces-u-s-midterms-as-historical-cycle-pattern-returns/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Faces U.S. Midterms as Historical Cycle Pattern Returns</a> appeared first on <a href="https://ethnews.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETHNews</a>.</p>

Bitcoin Faces U.S. Midterms as Historical Cycle Pattern Returns

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