Phantom

Rose

2026

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Phantom made prediction markets available to its eligible US users on October 23, 2026, through its <a href="https://phantom.com/learn/blog/phantom-puts-its-cftc-no-action-relief-to-work-bringing-prediction-markets-to-us-users" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">partnership with Kalshi</a>. Phantom’s wallet has more than 20 million users. 
By providing event trading, Phantom creates another motivation for users to use the app. As its October 27 announcement explained, access will expand in stages.
The users of Phantom wallets can trade on 15-minute changes in crypto prices or bet on contracts related to sports, economy, or politics. Making a prediction is similar to performing a token swap. Transactions can be funded using Phantom Cash, which is based on the CASH stablecoin. Payouts are credited in the same wallet. Users can keep track of live scores and participate in market discussions while staying within the app.
Phantom provides the trading platform. Kalshi, on the other hand, is responsible for customer verification, trading account management, and trade execution. Phantom wallet users with an existing Kalshi account can link it directly. KalshiEX LLC offers the prediction contracts. Phantom itself is not registered with the CFTC.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-limited-cftc-relief-unresolved-state-disputes-strong">Limited CFTC relief, unresolved state disputes</h3>
On <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9197-26" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">March 17, 2026</a>, CFTC staff granted Phantom conditional relief from introducing-broker registration. The decision covered Phantom’s role as a passive software provider.
On <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9300-26" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">September 17, 2026</a>, the agency provided the same kind of relief to other eligible service providers. This, however, did not resolve the ongoing dispute between the agency and states regarding contracts for sports events and gambling regulations. Kalshi is still facing restrictions on certain market segments in some states.
Phantom earns money when its wallet users trade. Kalshi shares part of its exchange fees on trades placed through the wallet. Phantom’s <a href="https://phantom.com/us-prediction-markets-disclosures" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">disclosures</a> acknowledge that this gives the company an incentive to encourage more trading. Kalshi’s markets will also receive prominent placement for a limited time. Phantom may charge an additional fee as well.
There’s a catch to encouraging more trading: the odds are not always as good as they look. <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/economics-kalshi-prediction-market" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CEPR researchers</a> studied over 300,000 Kalshi contracts. Prices became more accurate as settlement approached, but cheaper contracts were often poor bets. They won less frequently than their prices suggested. Across the contracts studied, the average return was about minus 20% before fees.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-volume-booms-but-notional-is-not-deposits-strong">Volume booms, but notional is not deposits</h3>
Trading is booming, but those big numbers need some context. <a href="https://www.vip-grinders.com/research/prediction-markets-report/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Artemis-derived figures</a> show September 2026 volume reached $76.46 billion, up 51.7% from August. Kalshi accounted for $60.85 billion, or 79.6%. That’s the value of contracts traded, not money deposited. Open interest stood at $2.21 billion at month-end. <a href="https://defillama.com/protocols/prediction-market" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">DeFiLlama</a> also shows roughly $4 billion in Kalshi’s seven-day trading volume. It does not report the platform’s total value locked (TVL).
Wall Street is taking notice, too. On October 26, <a href="https://press.spglobal.com/2026-10-26-S-P-Dow-Jones-Indices-and-Kalshi-Announce-Collaboration-to-Bring-the-Worlds-Most-Trusted-Benchmarks-to-Prediction-Markets" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices</a> named Kalshi a preferred platform for contracts tied to its benchmarks. It also plans to develop new indices using Kalshi’s market data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-us-derivatives-uk-betting-and-eu-binary-option-limits-strong">US derivatives, UK betting and EU binary-option limits</h3>
In the U.S., event contracts fall under CFTC oversight, though disputes over state gambling laws are far from settled. Britain takes a different approach. On February 4, 2026, its <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/blog/post/prediction-markets-heres-what-you-need-to-know" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Gambling Commission</a> said prediction-market operators generally fall under betting-intermediary rules. There is an exception, however. <a href="https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/3c4ede13/prediction-markets-and-event-contracts-a-uk-perspective" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Norton Rose Fulbright</a> explains that contracts qualifying as financial investments come under the FCA instead.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Phantom-×-Kalshi-prediction-market-gateway-1024x576.png" alt="">
 <figcaption>Phantom–Kalshi US Prediction Markets: Trading Volume, Partnership and Global Regulation
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The EU draws another distinction. On July 3, 2026, <a href="https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-reminds-firms-existing-rules-and-obligations-under-binary-option-measures" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ESMA warned</a> that event contracts classified as financial derivatives face existing restrictions on retail binary options. Other contracts may still fall under gambling laws. Across much of Asia, <a href="https://reports.tiger-research.com/p/do-you-really-know-prediction-markets-eng" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Tiger Research</a> says prediction markets are largely treated as gambling. This could push trading activity offshore. Ultimately, these different rules may determine where prediction-market platforms expand and where liquidity flows.
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Phantom adds Kalshi prediction markets for US users as rules diverge

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